Ask Lemmy
A Fediverse community for open-ended, thought provoking questions
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Lack of moderation and a flood of botnets and employed hostile actors is what could kill the fediverse, like what is happening with Twitter, Reddit, FaceBook, or YouTube.
Calling them dead or about to be killed, is a wide stretch. All of them do got some dips and people leaving these sites, but I don't see a big rush away, as the content is still there. With YouTube you don't have an alternative. With Twitter some went to Mastodon, some to Bluesky and some to Trump Twitter. Reddit is still doing good and Facebook... The whole concept is not doing well.
For all it's important, including fediverse is the content. Let just focus on Lemmy and Reddit. With Reddit you did have communities splitting of abusive mods. With Lemmy you suddenly have some general purpose communities on different instances and you need to figure out which one is worth following. Some communities quickly die off and they go back to reddit, as there are more users for that community. This alone is hurting whole Lemmy. When you then have somewhat active communities across different Instances, because they think, their instance is better or the other instances sucks, then you split the community more.
To survive you need content and active communities. Reddit still has a lot of that and Lemmy is trying to get more, but their design makes it hard to keep it together. Lemmy has just a few options to survive long term. Get more people and content, so the fragmentation doesn't play a huge role. Change the design, to prevent fragmentation or the users stop fighting and stop fragmenting the content and try to agree on one community and the others get deleted.
Stuff like Mastodon/Bluesky don't have such a huge problem, as it's about a single person and not a community.
YouTube MAU peaked in 2023 and long form videos are crashing down in views across the entire site.
Short form creators don't really make any money to begin with so they have no future on the platform.
How far it will fall, nobody knows, but if the equivalent happened to a smaller company it would be fatal.
But there is no big movement away. Yes creators do get less views and money, but I don't see a big movement of creators, nor viewers. Some big creators try to get the viewers back, that they lost because of the algorithm. They do create and use platforms like Floatplane or Nebula. Here in Germany some do go to the streaming sites of TV Networks. This isn't really solving the problem, as you switched from shitty YouTube to streaming fragmentation.
Bilibli apparently tries to go international and they do have the infrastructure to be an alternative. I use YouTube since 2008 and there was always people saying that their peak was a few years ago. I saw one try to move away from YouTube here in Germany. A lot of creators rushed to a platform, took viewers with them and started to upload their stuff there. The site couldn't handle the demand, quickly bought new hardware and what happend next? A lot of people walked back to YouTube. Creators didn't wanted to double upload and manage 2 sites and from a viewers perspective, not everyone switched, so they stayed where everyone was.
I saw so much the last years. People are always upset about changes and they always say they move but in the end, not much happens. People forget and with the next change, the whole thing repeats. There are no worthy alternatives. Some companies do try it, but it doesn't quite work out. Do you remember Facebook Gaming/Live? Do you remember Mixer? Both platforms that tried to replace twitch. Even YouTube tried to focus more on Game Streaming but failed. You still can stream on Youtube, but the whole YouTube Gaming thing is dead and never really took off.
To be honest, currently is a good time to try again to switch away from YouTube, as it really messed up a lot of stuff, because they focused more on short videos, than long videos. The other question is how long long videos do exist. Do they move more towards other platforms, like more classic vod streaming services (Netflix, Prime, Paramount, Disney, Discovery or streaming platforms of local TV stations) or do they try to fit more in the short video sector?