this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2026
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When the bubble pops (or at the very least when all that data center hardware gets obsolete) GPU and RAM prices gonna TANK. I'm not a fan of AI, but by that point, local-run models will be extremely cost-effective.
Only reason AI companies are even slightly competitive on price currently is because supply hasn't yet caught up to their mass cut-price purchases, plus the fact they're subsidising price still on huge losses.
There is a very high probability that the hardware companies will significantly reduce their production to keep the prices from falling.
I'm sure they will reduce their production, but unless they convince most datacentres to chuck their old hardware, I don't think it'll be close to enough to accommodate the flood of hardware to come.
We've already had a year of massive over-production, and rising still. Even better, Chinese companies have been increasingly entering the market and they don't tend to stop for sheet.
Unless the bubble pops very soon, no amount of reducing production will stop an oversupply.
I don't think that the datacenter hardware is going to the retail market instead of getting bought by the surveillance state as a form of bailout.
The surveillance state does not have need (nor dare I say, even want) of a trillion dollars worth of RAM.
They are going to use those datacenters to radically expand and automate surveillance.