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I just finished a PhD in stats, and before that, studied computer science. I had planned to go back to industry to do software engineering or be a data scientist afterwards.

However, it seems that in the meantime, vibe coding has taken over the software industry and swallowed most data scientist roles. Few open positions, and the ones that do exist are just pushing a button instead of thinking and solving problems. Is this a correct assessment? Should I try to get back in or just find a new career? I am not too keen on staying in academia either.

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[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

Well, I have my personal experience, but there are also all those math problems that AI has been solving recently... Here's one mathematician's discussion, with links to blog posts by other mathematicians who had spent years unsuccessfully working on some of those problems. He says:

Also, if you were wondering: apparently they tried the model on about 4,000 problems. So, right now it “merely” solves ~10% of the longstanding open mathematical problems that it’s asked about, the problems that whole communities have spent years on, after a single 3-hour attempt on them.

[–] evujumenuk@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That's what's gotta sting the most about this. Imagine you worked a problem for a long time… and then The Giant Pattern Matcher With Zero Fluid Intelligence actually finds something.

If it did find something, that implies the solution already existed in bits and pieces in the published literature. You would "just" have had to have read about it, and remember it, for successful application.

But suppose you had succeeded in that. You would have published a paper that enumerates a bunch of results some other people had reached, then plugs them together for a supposedly new theorem. Sort of like importing a dozen Python libraries, adding around fifty lines of glue code around them and then going, yeah, here's a "new" thing, Fields Medal plz!

How much remaining interestingness did your chosen problem really have if the new math you had to create for it fits on the placemat buttressing the campus cafeteria sandwich you had for lunch?

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

What I've seen appears to indicate some genuinely new approaches by the AI, rather than putting together existing information. That blog post, for example, quotes some running commentary from a mathematician studying the proof of the theorem that she had been working on for years:

It feels like something written by someone who’s on psychedelics. So much unclear and doesn’t make sense. Lots of name dropping of previous work without discussing why it can be used despite impossibility results

Basically the paper is so horribly written that it’s impossible to read it without AI help

I asked Astra for reasonable completeness and soundness claims of the noise gadget and it gave them by combining claims from all over the paper

They also have direct optimal NP hardness of approximation proofs for the main applications of the UGC (Max Cut and all CSP) that bypass the UGC.

The UGC proof invents a completely new bizarre code with a noise test. It’s some crazy recursive construction.

It’s not the long code, not the short code – some alien craziness

I still think that there maybe is a proof that uses the half space code (which is natural)

The citations are often irrelevant and confusing

A possible future is a math world that’s heavenly if you have vision/creative ideas that AI could help check and implement.

And of course there’s a lot for us to learn from the aliens

Note that this particular proof is correct, according to that same mathematician.

[–] evujumenuk@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

The issue with longstanding problems such as these is that yes, they can be used to establish evidence of plagiarizing if your LLM is simply regurgitating stuff, but suppose you cannot come up with any… you don't really know if it's because this particular line of thought is new, or because you just hadn't read about it.

That's true even if you're an expert practitioner; LLMs have been trained on All Of The Text and have superhuman recall after all.

[–] spectrums_coherence@piefed.social 0 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago) (1 children)

I think the blog says exactly the opposite, the AI is very bad at explaining its solution and core idea.

I think the interesting part is that explaining ideas is something that don't seem to have an obvious reward for RL to train on, unless mathematicians keeps handing them training data.

(OMG of course this guy is a rationalist 🫠

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 2 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (1 children)

Both can be true at once - it is coming up with original ideas but explaining them poorly. I'm not a mathematician but I find that in my field (software development) the AI is much better at writing code than it is at writing documentation - it will write documentation if you ask it to, but the documentation will be unfocused and difficult to read, with explanations of things that don't matter and garden path sentences. I got this sentence from it recently:

A restart build gives a particle or pair its specs restrain without saying where the anchor recorded for it.

That is actually not gibberish - it's technically correct, but it certainly isn't clear.

[–] spectrums_coherence@piefed.social 1 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

Maybe I miss understand what "extrapolate" means in your context. To me that means "extract the core idea and explain/apply them", as AI do not learn by producing output (unlike human), applying core idea requires it to be explained in clear language.

I was arguing that AI, at present, cannot effectively extract core idea which is what I would characterize as "extrapolate".

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 2 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

No, by "extrapolate" I mean to learn a pattern in the training data and then apply that pattern (in a useful way) to a problem outside the domain of the training data. An AI that cannot extrapolate would only be able to do the specific things that it had been taught to do, whereas an AI that can extrapolate is capable of solving new problems.

As for the language, I suspect that it is clear to the AI itself. During their training, programming AIs communicate with other programming AIs more than they do with humans, so they develop their own dialect of sorts which is good for exchanging information among themselves. This is just conjecture on my part, but my evidence is that if the AI really was internally confused about those math problems, it wouldn't have been able to solve them.

[–] spectrums_coherence@piefed.social 2 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

by "extrapolate" I mean to learn a pattern in the training data and then apply that pattern (in a useful way) to a problem outside the domain of the training data.

I think the ability to generalize is the very definition of "machine learning", without it, models would just be really slow databases. We observed these phenomena quite frequently, like the original Groking paper, where models remembers modular arithmetic and generalize it to produce an algroithm in its weight to solve all modular arithmetic.

It is kind of hard to say whether the model are "aware" of its weight and "understand" the algorithm it developed. We certainly don't have a good understanding of how our brain works.

"clearity" and "confusion" are really hard to assess for anything other than ourselves. It is certainly valid to say that if AI can solve math problem it must understand it. In other way, Dijkstra famously argued that the question of whether machine can "think" and "understand" is completely pointless.

But the end goal of code, math and many other subjects IMO is to "communicate", so that these knowledge can be maintained and transfered. Of course, unless we want to complete forefit our understanding to machine, which I feel can be a bit dangerous especially for foundational fields like mathematics, but we will see.

[–] klankin@piefed.ca 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

But it also appears that no human has understood just about any of these proofs yet; the race to do so has just started.

Sounds like a pretty smart mathematician

The blog post was written less than a day after the proofs were released, and apparently they're very hard for humans to follow. Now that a month has passed, there are human mathematicians' explanations of how the proofs work up on the internet.

[–] nimpnin@sopuli.xyz 0 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

"one mathematician" who happened to work at openAI, btw.

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 1 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (1 children)

You can look at Terence Tao's blog instead if you'd like. Just from the last week or so, there are the following headlines:

  • Egoless Mathematics in the AI Era
  • Mathematics has changed. Let’s act like it
  • The mathematical sciences in an AI-enabled world
  • Report of the Summit on Math Research in the Age of AI
  • AI, Mathematics, Education, and a public goods problem
[–] nimpnin@sopuli.xyz 1 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

I looked at Egoless Mathematics in the AI Era, and it was AI slop. BTW, his blog is full of guest posts now