European diplomats warned the Kremlin this week that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, according to officials familiar with the exchange.
At a tense meeting in Moscow, British, French and German envoys addressed their concerns about an incursion by three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia last week, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the talks took place behind closed doors. Following the conversation, they concluded that the violation had been a deliberate tactic ordered by Russian commanders.
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NATO’s eastern members have faced a series of violations this month that have posed an unprecedented test of the alliance’s resolve at a moment when Vladimir Putin is stepping up Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and US backing for Kyiv is wavering.
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The account of the meeting in Moscow shows that Putin has been given a more forceful warning about the volley of jets and drones into the skies over eastern Europe and offers an insight into the brinkmanship between the two sides.
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The Russian side took extensive notes during the conversation, the officials said, leading the European team to speculate that they had been instructed to provide a detailed readout of the NATO position up the chain of command.
A German government official confirmed that a meeting took place and that the ambassadors told Moscow that the incursions had to stop. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Thursday that he’s coordinating with Paris, London and Warsaw and supports “all measures necessary.”
UK and French spokespeople weren’t immediately able to comment on the meeting. President Emmanuel Macron declined to specify how NATO would respond to further incursions in an interview on France 24 on Wednesday.
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“The intention is to create division and to make us scared,” Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard told reporters Thursday. “The threat from hybrid attacks is here to stay.”
The sudden uptick aligns with the view from some security officials that a belligerent move from Moscow, whose war on Ukraine is well into its fourth year, would likely not come in the form of a conventional attack against the West, but rather a hybrid operation with deliberate ambiguity about its origins and motivations.
“Russia is testing us, testing our preparedness, testing our commitment to retaliate,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in an interview Monday in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. “I think it’s very important to show the solidarity — and even more important, fast reaction.”
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“If NATO shoots down a Russian plane under the pretext of an alleged violation of its airspace, this will be war,” Russian Ambassador Alexey Meshkov said Thursday during a broadcast on the French radio station RTL.
Other NATO leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni have also urged caution, warning allies in effect not to take the Kremlin’s bait, though Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said he would support bringing down a plane.
“The Russians should be aware it could happen if they enter NATO airspace,” Schoof said in an interview Thursday in New York.
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Romanian authorities monitored a Russian drone that had breached the country’s airspace for 50 minutes on Sept. 13. Although tracked by two F-16 fighter jets, a decision not to shoot it down — citing risks of falling debris — was met with criticism.
“When it comes to your own security, there’s no bigger priority than showing those who test you that you are capable of protecting your airspace,” former Romanian President Traian Basescu told broadcaster Digi TV.
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Putin only understands strength. Shoot them down.