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Also, at this point, for the Belgian government, I hope the drones are Russian or military. Because it painfully exposes how incompetent this country's defence is. Yesterday five drones managed to hover over a nearby nuclear facility without being detected or taken down. For over an hour.
Or this is the point and it will be used to further military spending.
imagining a very confused phone call
"General Kobylash, how goes our probing of Belgian defenses?"
"Mr President, they uhhhh... seem to be just letting the drones just... hover there"
"Over the nuclear facility?"
"Yes"
"How many drones made it to their target?"
"All of them"
"And they haven't made any attempt to shoot them down?"
"No, they are just sort of... staring at them, it's a little odd"
"Are we absolutely certain the Belgians actually have an air force?"
One of the funniest exchanges I read about this ordeal was between defence and the police. Apparently defence filed a report at the police because drones were flying over their base but since the police is also the victim of budget cuts, the handling of the report might take weeks. This is a national security breach of basically the highest order lol.
I can only imagine the feedback at the Russian side being like how you described above
Probably the latter
Apparently the Belgian army has a specialized anti drone team that has not been called to action, so it is suspicious.
I don't understand how the Russians are supposed to be doing this all the way over in Belgium. Not only is it pointless, it would be an extreme waste of resources. Not even of the drones themselves but of the human resources.
If they have agents embedded in Western Europe why would they be so stupid as to waste those assets on such pointless stunts that only help the Europeans increase the level of paranoia and militarization? What do they realistically even gain from it? There are much better ways to gain intel that is actually relevant to Russia.
The dysfunction of Belgian drone defenses is totally irrelevant to Russia, they aren't ever going to need to drone strike Belgium. If they were to probe NATO defenses they would do it in the Baltics, Romania and Poland, where they may actually need to strike at some point.
And why would they risk their agent network being burned on such a childish stunt? It's not like it's impossible (for a competent country) to find out from where the drones are being flown. People have been arrested before for flying their hobby drones over restricted areas in many other countries.
So, sorry but the "Russia theory" makes zero sense and anyone who continues to insist that this is a serious possibility just loses credibility in my eyes.