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Just a day ago, a senior Anthropic executive claimed the U.S. still held a 6 to 9 month lead in frontier AI models, while calling Chinese model distillation adversarial. One day later, Moonshot’s Kimi K3 beat Claude Fable 5 on Frontend Code Arena. And the funniest part is that it is an open weight model.
So the whole 6 to9 month lead lasted about 24 hours. 🤣
https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeaways-from-the-2026-report
That investment graph is insane
Anything is possible with a sprinkle of fraud!
Totally not a bubble
Tbf they (Moonshot) claim it’s not as good as Fable overall. Fable is also held back by US government mandated guards. Anthropic could well be ahead by a lot in terms of research and maybe we just don’t have the full picture. But that puts them in an even worse spot because it would mean they’re already at the limit of what they can compete with in the market.
I think the big picture here is that the difference in quality is largely subjective at this point, while US companies are burning through orders of magnitude of cash which is obviously not sustainable. We shouldn't underestimate the power of developing things in the open. Chinese open models benefit from the wisdom of an entire global research community while American engineers working on proprietary closed models are working in their own insular silos. It should be no surprise that the scientific community at large would pull ahead of these small teams. On top of that, doing research in the open amortizes the cost. Incidentally, this is exactly the same logic that led open source to dominate in recent years.
It doesn’t hurt that American frontier models are phenomenally huge and cost an exorbitant amount per token in and out while the main source of real world value created by llms in the past year has been through agentic/harness/other words for massive context systems that show a real benefit from simply using more tokens.
OpenAIs bet was that compute was the limiting factor. Sam Altman claimed that essentially no-one could obtain the level of compute necessary to develop something like GPT-4. Then Deepseek came out.
They're still trying to make the original claim true because if they admit that they were wrong (or full of shit) it all comes crashing down, not just their companies but likely the economy as a whole.
It's funny to watch them take the whole US economy down on a bluff.
Why are there so many pictures of Sam Altman just Looking Like That?
If I were him I too would be in disbelief that people are buying my bullshit 24/7. What other expression could express this so well?
The latest model is K2.7, I can decide what wrote the article. Is it more likely than an Ai did not know 2.7 existed or a journalist at Gizmodo is incompetent?
What do you mean by this? The latest model is K3, which was released yesterday.
Edit: ah I see the reference to K2.6
yay
Kimi K3 looks insane but it's also very expensive right now, hopefully that changes or I don't see myself using it over the previous models
I mean if it's going against Anthropic pricing that's steal a good deal.
Full text: (Archive link: https://archive.ph/Sy4tV)
spoiler
Alibaba-backed Chinese artificial intelligence startup Moonshot just unveiled its latest model, Kimi K3, and it’s already sending shockwaves through the industry, with some benchmarks showing the model outperforming Anthropic and OpenAI’s best offerings.
The model packs 2.8 trillion parameters, which Moonshot says would make it the largest open-weight model released to date once its weights become available by July 27.
In a blog post, the company acknowledged that K3’s overall performance still trails Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. Its internal evaluations nevertheless place it close to both models on several tasks, while independent testing by Artificial Analysis ranks it immediately behind the leading proprietary systems on its Intelligence Index and real-world work evaluations.
On Arena.ai’s front-end development leaderboard, K3 even ranks above the two most powerful models, marking a 17-place jump from the company’s previous model, Kimi K2.6. Arena’s CEO, Anastasios Angelopoulos, said Kimi K3 “may be the single biggest release of the year” and “the moment that OSS Chinese models have surpassed US models,” in a post on X.
Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos (@ml_angelopoulos) [https://xcancel.com/ml_angelopoulos/status/2077832882673066109]
This may be the single biggest release of the year, and marks the moment that OSS Chinese modles have surpassed US models.
Code Arena, Kimi K3 has BEATEN FABLE.
This is only 6 weeks after the Fable release.
This makes @Kimi_Moonshot the #1 AI lab in the world on frontend coding capability, and more results are rolling in that are likely to continue to show it is at the top of the pack.
The implications of this, whether on the closed-source AI business models or the larger capital ecosystem in the US, are enormous.
Arena.ai (@arena) [https://xcancel.com/arena/status/2077824029126504525]
Big news: Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now #1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5.
This is a 17-place jump from Kimi-k2.6 (#18 -> #1).
In Frontend, Kimi-K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 domains: Brand & Marketing, Reference-Based Design, Data & Analytics, Consumer Product, Simulations, and Content Creation Tools, landing #2 only in Gaming behind Fable 5.
The full model weights will be released by July 27.
Congrats to the @Kimi_Moonshot team on this major milestone!
It’s a remarkable achievement, especially for an open-source model. The results challenge the assumption that China’s leading AI labs remain several months behind their American competitors. Anthropic just released Fable 5 last month, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 (and its three tiers, Sol, Terra, and Luna) just dropped last week.
“Kimi k3 is a big moment with multiple implications for the entire industry,” Trump’s former senior White House policy advisor on AI, Sriram Krishnan, said in a post on X.
The last time something like this happened, aka when a Chinese AI lab released a cheaper model that proved competitive with American alternatives, was when DeepSeek released R1 back in January 2025. Following that release and its reception, the market reaction helped wipe roughly $1 trillion from global technology stocks. Meanwhile, the model’s success raised major national security concerns across Washington D.C., and partially informed the Trump administration’s hard-line stance on advanced tech exports to China.
Moonshot’s release also comes only a few months after Anthropic accused the company, along with other Chinese AI companies DeepSeek and MiniMax, of violating their rules to “illicitly” extract the capabilities of its model Claude and use that to improve their own models. The process is called “distillation,” and it’s fairly common in the industry, but the Trump administration has deemed it “adversarial” and vowed to crack down on it.
K3 arrives amid heightened scrutiny of the U.S.-China AI race and growing national-security concerns around frontier models. Its release is likely to renew debate in Washington over export controls, distillation, and whether restrictions on Chinese labs are slowing their progress at all.
Can we please not write headlines like that when we're on the verge of ww3 and literal bombs might be dropped on the US in the coming months?
