Escalation of Moscow’s rhetoric and ongoing ‘hybrid’ attacks have left Baltic states somewhere between war and peace.
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Warnings by American and European intelligence services of a Russian threat have grown louder and more insistent in recent weeks as Ukrainian drone strikes bring the conflict to the Kremlin’s doorstep. Western agencies are convinced that Vladimir Putin will seek a pretext for some kind of provocation beyond Ukraine to divert Nato’s attention and test its resolve.
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Latvia is already facing a barrage of cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and threats of sabotage. “Things have escalated. So any type of hybrid threat is definitely on the menu,” said [Latvia’s prime minister Andris] Kulbergs. “It could be anywhere, not just Latvia or the eastern flank. And we have to be ready for that.”
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One of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, Latvia spent 5% of GDP on defence last year – among the highest in Europe. While neighbouring Estonia, Lithuania and Poland have all matched that increase, Europe’s biggest economies still lag behind.
“Five per cent is not enough,” said Kulbergs. “We would need 25%. We are keeping Europe safe here. But that cannot be left on the shoulders of the nation of Latvia.”
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‘Illegal migration flows are organised by the Russian regime. They use those migrants to destabilise the situation in Latvia,' says Vladimirs Šersts, Latvia's border control chief.
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On Latvia’s home front, some civilians are preparing to mobilise – in a disused plywood factory just outside the centre of Riga. Near the entrance to Drone House, the largest indoor drone training centre in the Baltics, trophies from the battlefield in Ukraine are displayed including two Russian downed drones and donated by Ukrainian units.
Anete Kiseleva had come to drop her 12-year-old son off for class. Drone House offers free 10-hour courses for children aged eight and above, covering the basics of FPV (first-person-view) drones, how to fly them legally, and battery safety. “In this age it’s important to predict what kind of skills we will need,” Kiseleva said.
For her son, it’s just a bit fun, but it could also be useful in a worst case scenario, she said, adding: “Of course, I hope that’s not going to happen”.
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There are also lessons from Latvia’s own history, says Māris Bruža, a Latvian military veteran and board member of Drone Force Europe. His relatives were among the 60,000 people deported to Siberia and other remote regions of Russia during the Soviet occupation in the 1940s. They died there. “It’s our existential question,” he said “We must be ready”.
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