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The mechanism is almost elegant in how it works against you
Yeah, this or plain fraud. Bending the rules to be included early in index funds like the spaceX case or not enforcing the rules in case of Tesla/S&P500 is what allows fraud to happen. Circular investments pumping up the numbers too. But let's just pretend everything is fine until it's too late
Chatgpt wrote this article.
Damn, you're right. I fell for it this time.
If you're worried about this... I'd say be wary of your situation. Have enough accessible cash for 6 months to a year of okay living. And if it does dip a lot, buy into it with some of that money.
And don't sell. The only time you should sell is when you're approaching the time you need to take everything out, like if you're approavhing a house purchase, old age or such.
And good luck
Lol, or just move to a country that isn't trash and provides some social security.
Why not sell some now and move to different asset classes? If you recognise risk then reducing that risk is one of the best things you can do
But no, here come the "time in the market.." and "stonks only go up.." brigade. Which actually contradicts the message of this article
I don't have the knowledge necessary for such moves. By the time such stuff hits the public internet and news, it's already late.
Making a call like that before said info is public is baseless.
The only people that have enough knowledge to make such calls are insiders that do insider trading...
People have been saying the market will crash since 2024 and it still didn't happen. If I had trusted my knowledge, I'd have never invested in the first place, because finalcial markets have always been a cesspit. Even the RAM manufactured crisis is just a repeat of what happened in the 2000's but if you started investing in 2000 you would be fucking rich right now, especially if you put in as much as possible in 2007 and 2008.
Oh dang, I only have enough cash for zero months. ...where'd I put those bootstraps...
Look man... I'm sorry...
I don't know what to tell you. It's terrible being so tight on money. I don't have advice to give on that, because all I did was get lucky to not be working minimum wage...
But I have some semi-informed advice to give about keeping money safe and wanted to share...
And it's good advice. Never sell during the crash, especially if you don't need those funds for a decade or more. Individual companies might burn, but if you own a passive investment ETF, it will eventually recover with the market - provided you still own the investment and didn't panic and are now holding cash instead.
Oh, I didn't mean anything by it lol. Soz.
<3
Breath and talk to myself "No, you will NOT make some highly inappropriate joke about zero money, bootstraps and necks..." breath
Think of it like this, no money = nothing to lose!
Thereβs plenty of sources claiming how people like Elon have so much money in loans, when the crash comes the banks will quickly move to recover those debts.
On top of that, all you see are rich people telling others the way to get rich is getting loans upon loans. Well when the crash comes and again, you can no longer repay the loans, itβs going to hit hard! So much money is tied up in pretend money on gains that donβt exist!
Right now having no money is probably safer, my plan is getting out of debt as much as possible, as quick as possible. Hell, if it hits hard enough people might end up going back to trading goods for goods! π
Can you imagine if someway all the debts in the world were balanced? That if A owes something to B and B owes something to C and C owes something to A the debt becomes the difference? And this on a world level.
Well when the crash comes and again, you can no longer repay the loans
Well, is that the case? Afaik when they loan with a stocks amount as collateral, the X units of stock are the collateral, not the Y value of stock.
They just set aside more collateral value than the loan is worth. Say if you loan 1k the collatelar assigned will probably be 2-3k.
If the stock holding value gets dangerously low, the lender can liquidate your stock I think
But, EVEN THEN, the NET worth of say, Musk, doesn't change too much in that case. Because net worth already has all debts subtracted from it.
It would change in the value equal to the difference between the loan value and the liquidated collateral value I guess, but I don't imagine that would be very large? This part I'm unsure about.
So even in the end I don't think they lose too much...
Economy crash speedrun let's goooo!
Let's not. It's pretty much never been good, historically speaking.
The AI Bros won't care, and they will never learn, repeat those economy crisis. So just pop it before it affects everyone everywhere.
If thereβs one positive thing to it, itβs how worker cooperatives were formed in most cases.
Business goes bust or big bosses decide specific location doesnβt bring enough value for shareholders - workers chip in and buy facility out. At least how it worked in, for example, Argentina.
I kinda feel Argentina is a bit different to Europe in that their economy was in a very bad shape, in Europe I would expect some Chinese enterprise buying the factory, leaving workers with pretty much nothing
But what about our glorious revolution?
Which one? The only revolution currently showing widespread successes is the one from the far right.
I wouldn't call that either "our" nor "glorious".
Funnily, the article author is called Al.
Seriously:
The ECBβs warning isnβt aimed at Wall Street traders β itβs aimed at anyone whose pension or index fund quietly loaded up on AI stocks.
Didn't know this was a thing in Europe, too.
Could already qualify if you have a very broad ETF which is 20% ~~Bubble~~ NVIDIA.
The pension system is different, in general in the us you have your own fund and in Europe you pay to an institute like you do with insurance. Some pension funds are ginormous and manage the pensions of millions of people.
I think I'll be ok. I don't make enough money to invest on funds.
I think one has to look at the danger of a bursting AI bubble with the crisis=opportunity mindset: If the bubble pops there will be THE opportunity to buy and profit when the market moves up again... yeah, it will perhaps not go back up to the all time high but there is a healthy profit to make.
If you are already invested, than you do not have spare money to buy a dip. If you do have spare money, your investment strategy is questionable.
2 rules everybody should know:
Someone made a game out of this:
https://beatthecouch.com/
You're trying to beat the couch by supposedly in an informed way selling and buying from the S&P500. The couch just holds its money in the S&P500 and does nothing. Only about 10% of players outperform the couch.
It's made with real data from the last ~ 100 years but only shows you the trend of the price, not the years.
That stat isn't accurate. I was able beat it by recognizing periods between 08 and present day. No doubt a certain amount of the 10% are cheating this way too.
It might be more accurate to make a random chart that has a similar statistical profile at a specific time frame, rather than using the plain historical data.
Beating the market is easy though, you just need some insider information.
That's brilliant, I have to play it
My investment strategy over the last two decades was to buy something when its down, forget about it (and so don't get frustrated when it sunk even deeper after buying), stumble over the investment > 5 years later and be happy about the accumulated money. Surprisingly it worked quiet well so far...
If you do have spare money, your investment strategy is questionable.
Huh? You invest x% of your income each month. You don't have next month's money today, so nothing questionable about it.
If the market crashes, you keep buying each month, so you profit when it goes back up.
Sorry I don't really understand. Isn't that what I am saying?
It's not. Your initial paragraph only makes sense if everything happens in the same point in time. When this bubble bursts it will start a market crash that spans multiple years, not a one time thing that you have to buy into today or miss it.
I think this is a misunderstanding. I am talking about "extra money", that you should not have available to but a potential dip. Instead you ignore the ups and downs but invest each month (or whatever your rhythm is). The key point here is that you cannot time the market.
I invest a few tens of euros a month, and I actively try to buy low. So far I've managed to buy quite a few dips, and in ~15 months i've gained 14.84%. The total sum of money i've invested is not much, but it has been consistent
The MSCI World made 28.49 in the last 15 months
If you invested 100% of the money 15 months ago, not when you invested every month for 15 months.
Sure, but how am I supposed to compare someone's personal 14% then? The number does not tell us anything. Even if OP made a fortune - he was just lucky then.
I don't want to invest in a global fund, I invest based on my own values
Magnificent 7
8 companies
Genius.
It accidentally listed Amazon twice. The list would otherwise be alphabetical.
That's like a grand a head, give or take. Mental.