Uh, yeah, not like this.
If you're sitting around waiting for the empire to fall, then it's never going to fall. Empires fall because people make them fall.
And it's going to be achieved with blood...
this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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Mean, mode, or median?
What's the standard deviation look like?
Empires don't end, they fizzle out.
Real empires go for much longer.
The US will not be more than a shitstain in the pages of history.
The 250 year thing is basically completely made up BS
Indeed. The empire you left to make your own with blackjack and hookers was nearly double that. If you want to be facetious too, then probably triple.
250 years is just a rough estimate. As an expert, what's the number you've arrived at?
Three
It's straight up not a thing, there is no number of years which tends to correspond to the life expectancy of empires
We're talking about the average life expectancy of an empire. It's a fairly straightforward calculation if one has all the data ready.
Sure, we could also work out the average life expectancy of a mammal.
But, would it really be useful, predictive or meaningful, given the variety and variability of the conditions the data emerges from?
Yes. The average life expectancy of a human for instance is a useful statistic in healthcare, social services, financial and retirement planning, etc.
Yes, because of the relatively similar conditions and needs of humans
Something empires don't have!
Interesting... 😂
It's not really that straightforward though, is it? Firstly is it a mean or a median average? What counts as an empire? When do we date the rise and fall of specific empires? These are not questions with straightforwards answers. Would Hitler's Germany count as an empire? How many Roman empires were there?
It being an average number, pulled out of it's context, doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond just the average
Regardless, that is the number we are interested in.
I hate to be nitpicky about a meme but I love to be nitpicky. This claims is based on bullshit statistics that the author made up or bent to his will. The Ottoman empire alone shows this to be incorrect but Rome too stands out. Besides, what would an arbitrary amount of time have to do with the collapse of complex economic systems. Its bullshit idealism and I hate seeing it.
I am begging the US to collapse though
Average. It's just an average. I haven't verified whether the number is accurate (and often it's probably debatable what qualifies as an empire and at what point it fell) but some empires lasting way longer does nothing to disprove 250 years being the average lifespan.
The second part of what you said is still entirely correct of course, that number has no real predictive capabilities for the collapse of the USA.
It isn't though, I have seen the original source of this claim and its bs. The author just picks and chooses when empires begin and end so that it fits their claim. I would concede the point if it were ever actually an average.
It's not just Glubb. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio also arrives at the 250 year number.
Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory suggests cycles of 200-300 years as well.
It's funny to imagine our descendants in whatever America becomes defending the empire by saying it wasn't America's fault it collapsed, it was Israel's; hopefully though one of the things they admit is it's also because of culture war idiocy and other arbitrary, fabricated social divisions; EDIT: Also the empire's insistence on capitalism and wasting the talents contained in around 350 million people; China capitalizing (haaaaa, see what I did there?) on their population with excellent access to really good education and health services has turned their one billion people into its most powerful asset, meanwhile in America humans are also an asset, but in the form of slavery (wage slavery and actual slavery).
I want to believe
Thankfully, nothing lasts forever.
Pic unrelated
(I'm /j)
When someone says "death to America", they aren't saying "death to Americans". A government/state is a regime, not all it's people, despite how much as nationalists love to stoke that sort of patriotism. So I have no problem with the slogan, I call for the fall of the US imperialist regime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_to_America#Interpretation_and_meaning - has some confirmations from various Iranian politicians and a travel writer.
Usians: "hate the government not the people"
Usians when hearing someone else say "hate the government not the people" about USA: "we're gonna kill you"
OK, so what's the plan for bringing death to the USA without killing a single American?
Where is that constraint coming from? "Death to [x]" is a statement of a desire.
"Death to Americans" would be a call for the deaths of citizens. Obviously Iran doesn't consider the typical American citizen to be oppressing them, so they are not interested in calling for that.
Someone yelling "death to America" could still be supporting the death of George W. Bush or Donald Trump, who are Americans. It could even involve combating many in the US military. That's still very different from calling for "death to Americans", because the target is the regime, not its citizens simply for being citizens.
But I still think you've raised an interesting discussion to have so I've tried to answer it.
In an ideal world, regime change. Relatively peaceful dissolution is preferable and possible (consider the death of the Soviet Union).
However, given the ruthlessness of the people with the most power in the US, I suspect they would gladly kill millions of Americans before even considering a peaceful surrender. People are shot by the state in regular protests, let alone one directly threatening the state (case in point - Jan 6 had a protester killed by police). So unless some interesting lucky opportunities open up (such as a military coup), the USA will (continue to) kill Americans to maintain stability, regardless of whether those opposing the USA kill a single American.
Given that situation, it sounds like any resistance to the US is bad because will likely involve deaths of innocent people. Yes, but the other side of the story is that to do nothing ''also'' results in the deaths of innocent people. To the people running the show, it's completely normal to oversee the constant atrocious social murder of many thousands each year through poverty, artificial scarcity of food and medication, healthcare denial and other neglect in the name of profit. We overproduce enough food to feed everyone, there's enough land and property to house everyone.
To do nothing is to allow many Americans to keep dying each day from easily preventable deaths. To fix that system will most likely kill many Americans in the process. You can almost simplify it down to a trolley problem - there's no clean solution whichever choice you make. But, for each of us, there is a correct decision.
Of course this is incorrect, go look up an empire and see.
... Roman empire got over 1000 years, Ottoman's got 623 years, Mongol empire only got 162.
...and Italy, Turkey, and Mongolia are still around, they're just not empires anymore. They're Nations.
“Average”
Mean, median, or mode?
Yes.
I take preference to the “Russian method” cut off the high and low score and mean them.
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It's not correct, but would be nice.
Despite all the and suffering it has caused and will cause, Trump admin has at least handed us the beginning of a breakdown in US hegemony as trust has eroded with other nations who are all busy pivoting away from it right now.
Unfortunately upon breaking the gridlock, other nations are scrambling to maintain the status quo rather than leaning into the future by redoubling commitments to address human and climate crises before it’s too late for the humans.
Made-up bullshit
Facebook type posting
Does this picture originate from a comic?
I think it's from a cute meme made for r/teens on Reddit ... Or "teenredditors"... I dunno what the sub is called anymore...