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So I can't speak to the actual motivation for the moon, but can for one reason for at-least-temporary human habitation there. Solar system exploration (and, inevitably resource extraction.
When you launch rockets from Earth, a vast majority of the fuel you start with is burnt off just getting to orbit, out of the deepest part of our gravity well. If you want to go anywhere else in our solar system, you're severely limited to what's left. The moon's gravity is low enough that it could work as a refuelling station. Provided we find enough water there and set up solar hydrolysis stations there and build the infrastructure to get it up to orbiting ships. All that will take people to set up, and possibly to manage long term.
We like the moon, because its close to us We like the moon, but not as much as a spoon!
The moon could be like an orbital gas station which is much easier to land and launch from compared to Earth (no atmosphere, less gravity). Building a buffer on the moon would make it considerably easier to ship mass to other planets. I don't really see a way we build a Mars base without having succeeded on the Moon first.
This just pushes the question out one ring. What do we need to do on other planets that we can't do on Earth?
The sad answer is there isn't really anything. Go live on Mars and it will suck compared to Earth - no nature to enjoy, extremely limited variety of food, largely cut off from the rest of human culture and experience. After hundreds of years, it might be developed to look like suburban Ohio - you'll have some iron mines and some Applebee's and maybe enough people that the martian memes are fire .. but you still won't have a beach, or anything to see outside, or a blue sky.
It will just be Earth, but worse.
The promise of going there is enough to raise revenue. Whether or not we go there doesn't matter to the corpos making the false promises. Musk said we'd be in Mars by now, right?
I'd separate this into two different things - what is good for humanity and what is good for billionaires like Musk.
For humanity, venturing out into the solar system will advance science, and also help drive technological advancement which does have benefits for society as a whole. The space race in the 20th century did advance technology, and much of the modern technology we take for granted has routes in the space race.
But also humanity needs to move away from our current capitalistic system and that is very much driven by scarcity. The resource wealth in the solar system is mind bogglingly vast and if we can tap into even a portion of it, it could allow us to change how we as a species live. It would initially be driven by capitalism for sure, but when you have effectively infinite resources for a civilization, that changes everything we do.
Also for the long term survival of our species we need to be looking outwards. Earth is vulnerable - one asteroid strike and out species could be wiped out. Even if only a small number of people were to head out into the stars, it would help guarantee a long term future and resilience for our species.
I think one big mistake people make is that what happens on earth is a zero-sum game: i.e. for some to win, it must be at the cost of others. That is wrong and is a result of our terribly broken economic system. But we can both colonize the moon and mars AND fix the problems on Earth. And it may do good for our species to look up to the stars and have a bigger shared goal than just existing on this rock and acquiring wealth.
In terms of why the moon & mars. The moon is essential as a staging post for future expansion, as it's very expensive resource and energy wise to launch from Earths gravity well, but much cheaper to build at the moon and launce from there without the added step & complexity in design for launching off Earths surface. Mars meanwhile is the most viable candidate at present for a self sustaining colony long term (with a couple of moons of Jupiter and Saturn other options, and possibly venus as a long stretch).
Meanwhile, Musk is a deranged billionaire idiot. He is nothing more than a investor gambler; other people are doing the hard work making things happen while he is a public face of various companies. He really is peripheral to this, even if he does push the topic into the public consciousness. Don't conflate the idea of expanding into the solar system with that idiot. The idea precedes him and will run long beyond his life and any influence he has. He is just a narcissistic loud mouth with money.
It'd be cool as fuck.
We wanna be on da MOON BABY!! Dats why we wanna moon da moon babayyyy, finna jump and bounce around around low gravity babaeeee gotta collect rocks and shit babaaaaa gotta set uo dos fool’s telescopics for alien tities bwaaawbawaaaaa
(Collect and research materials in space far easier and launch rockets more cost effectively. Also for more budget experiments and observations not possible on earth due to the atmosphere/high gravity) bwabaaaaweeeeeeewwwww
In reality there isn't any real reason to have a permanent base on either.... especially Mars.
Why? There are plenty of reasons. If Earth is the only place that ever will be habitable or the only place 'we' are stuck on, there will come a point where that's going to be a massive problem, and it seems that time is coming pretty quickly. So figuring out how to explore and expand just beyond earth would be pretty important to the long term survival of the species.
The idealistic answer: Science! Lots of things to learn by establishing humanity's first extraterrestrial presence on our closest celestial neighbor.
The realistic answer: Capitalism. Lots of money to be made in mining the moon.
There is enough material wealth in the asteroid belt to create a sustainable post-scarcity civilization. We could move out, and turn this little blue-green planet into a fucking nature preserve.
Settlements on multiple worlds within the solar system offer protection against risks that might otherwise end with the extinction of Homo Sapiens.
For the ultra rich - moving off world to escape the collapse of the biosphere is ridiculous.
Easier to "settle" the deserts of Utah of the Australian Outback than Mars - plenty of O2 and no worries about ambient radiation, but a very similar environment...
I guess we could grow a bunch of wheat inside of it, then send it back to earth. If we're not treated well we could swap wheat for rocks. At least, that what Heinlein suggested.
Exploration and discovery for humanitarian goals, different abundance of resources and lack of other resources usually gives opportunities for mining, production/refining/fabrication, and trade. And further, more metal resource rich regions like the asteroid belt will require developing the same tech needed to establish outposts, bases, and fueling stations far from earth.
It’s scientifically priceless. For instance, a permanent space telescope/excavation base on the dark side of the moon would be incredible.
…But realistically, post 2026, that should be handled by drones. Doubly so for expeditions to other celestial bodies.
The people pushing for human habitation in space aren’t really technical; they don’t have a good scientific background. But they think they are because they’ve seen some sci-fi, maybe they hold some high office, and their egos are the size of the moon.
They’re also surrounded by bubbles telling them they are right.
There was similar financial angst around the Apollo Program, FYI. The political question was “why didn’t that money go to social programs instead?”
I’m against that. I think the space race was scientifically priceless. But… TBH, I think funding winding down made sense, too.
But that should be distinct from the more recent flights of fancy. Let me be clear: humans (as we exist now) living in space makes zero sense, no matter how much we don’t want that to be the case. It certainly won’t fix any Earth problems.
I've never understood their logic. If you can create such a society on another world, would it not be easier to change the society already in this world?
Because humans will.. "human" and will always do the things we have shown to do for hundreds of years. That will not change,
People will change their minds, start to form alliances, etc. so if they cannot convince people now, here, if that is already too hard... Why do they think it will be any better on another world where in fact it would be even harder!?