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While the Swiss try to figure out how to deal with Trump and the US, the episode has cast a new light on the country’s relationship with the EU. That’s long been a divisive issue, with arguments about trade and economic benefits clashing with concern about immigration and sovereignty.
For the pro-EU voices, the chaotic back and forth with the US will give them fresh reason to push the benefits of ties with the bloc, particularly as it secured a far better 15% rate.
“This will undoubtedly strengthen the camp of those who argue that Switzerland needs to move closer to the EU,” said Rene Schwok, a professor of political science at the University of Geneva. “Their argument is that the EU is a much more reliable partner than the US and China.”
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It’s not just the upending of global trade that is pushing the Swiss to rethink how it works with the EU. The director of the government agency responsible for military procurement said in June he’s seeking closer collaboration with European neighbors as global demand for weapons surges and the nation’s own defense industry falters.
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Switzerland’s decision to embrace EU sanctions on Russia shortly after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a watershed moment. The European Commission had urged Switzerland to follow its lead on punishing the Kremlin, noting that although not an EU member state, it’s still “part of Europe.” Switzerland took the hint.
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To be sure, Switzerland’s low unemployment, low inflation economy is robust enough that it could withstand the 39% U.S. tariff hit. If pharmaceutical exports were included at the unchanged rate, this would translate to a hit of at least 0.7-percentage point hit to the economy, according to Hans Gersbach at KOF economic research institute in Zurich.
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[However], this may push the Swiss to reconsider the advantages of “splendid isolation,” [senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank Jacob Funk] Kirkegaard said.
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