Europe

Archived version

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Their enhanced military cooperation [between China and Russia] alters not only strategic calculations and defense planning in Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington, but also in Europe. For Taiwan, Japan, and the United States, a more aligned China and Russia, along with North Korea, could directly challenge the northern and southern approaches of the first island chain, which runs from Japan to the Philippines and is considered the first line of defense against a potential Chinese expansion into the Pacific by the US and its allies.

In a Taiwan contingency scenario, Moscow could exert pressure on and contain Tokyo through the Sea of Okhotsk, the Sea of Japan, and the East China Sea, areas that have become hotspots for China–Russia joint naval and aerial exercises in recent years.

Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific could provide Moscow with time and space to expand its own influence in Europe while Europe’s most important ally, the United States, is drawn into the Western Pacific. This shifting dynamic has been evident since the start of the second Trump administration, as Washington has withdrawn some of its troops from Europe and called on Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense and support of Ukraine. Under intensifying US-China competition, Asia has been further elevated among US defense priorities, and the deepening China–Russia military cooperation has increased pressure on the European security architecture for greater self-reliance.

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