The German Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) and the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) have released their annual threat assessment reports, prepared against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war. Both documents note a further deterioration of the security environment for NATO and EU states.
The intelligence agencies of these countries reach similar conclusions: Russia remains the primary source of military, espionage, and hybrid risks. MAD notes that the Bundeswehr continues to be a priority target for Russian intelligence due to its role as a NATO logistical hub and its support for Ukraine. FE emphasizes that Moscow is already conducting hybrid warfare against NATO. Danish military intelligence assesses the risk of Russian sabotage against its armed forces as “high” and considers the possibility of a conflict with Russia in the Baltic region likely.
China is identified in the reports as a long-term strategic threat. Beijing’s intelligence activity encompasses technological and scientific espionage, infiltration of European defense and research programs, and the use of economic and political influence tools. According to MAD, in 2024 the number of Chinese intelligence incidents in Germany increased by 15% compared to 2023, and Chinese intelligence systematically recruits its citizens for espionage activities.
The deepening of Russia-China interaction is considered an additional risk factor. FE highlights China’s supply of components to the Russian defense industry, enabling Moscow to increase its weapons production.
The intelligence agencies also forecast a further rise in hybrid threats. Focus areas include more extensive disinformation operations, economic pressure, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and attempts to destabilize European armed forces.
The published reports confirm a persistent trend: Russia’s hybrid activities are intensifying, while China is gradually expanding its tools of influence over European states.