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this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
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Oh it's like fusion. AGI in 18 months, and in 18 months it'll be another 18 months, and in another 18 months it'll be yet another 18 months, and in 50 years it'll be in 18 months.
By some of the original estimates we're supposed to all be dead due to a nuclear war genetically engineered virus released by an AI by now. But nope, were all still here, the lying bastards.
"You first."
Anyone who actually thinks this must not actually do a whole lot and probably could be automated really easily, AI or not.
so thats when the bubble will pop.
Just another trillion dollars guys! Just another year and a half! I swear!
He is learning from Muskrat.
Junkies high on venture capital, begging for their next hit.
With the things trending the way they are it will be more expensive than one by then too.
Remember 18 months ago when all programmers and software engineers were going to be replaced.... Still waiting.....
Translation: Dear investors, please keep supplying truck-loads of money for us to burn!
You'll get it all back and so much more! We promise, in 18 months!
He has just given himself an eighteen month deadline to succeed or lose his own job. At least, that’s how I’d interpret it if I was in a position to fire his ass.
I would just fire him now for being obviously incompetent. How can someone competent make such an unrealistic prediction?
If you work for a large enough organisation it's almost impossible to get fired. Microsoft like most organisations almost certainly operate on the PIN system, or something equivalent.
Basically to get fired you have to get yelled at by your manager, then have a documented yelling at from HR, then get another documented yelling at from HR, then get put on report, then fail to improve, and then you're fired. Each stage has like a 2-month cooldown before the next step.
Start to finish the whole process can take over a year. Most people quit out of boredom before it gets that far. If you are not literally the most incompetent employee in the department you're probably safe.
Actually, I'd interpret it as him losing his job in 18 months regardless of whether he succeeds or fails, since management is a white-collar job.
Executives would be the perfect jobs to automate really, there is little they do that computers couldn't, and they are such high value positions nowadays.
Or else Microsoft will fold?
That'd be nice
Given Macroslops recent track record with updates I find it more likely that all Win 11 PCs will be bricked within 18 months...
win 11 doesnt seem like it can survive even 6 months.
And then white collar employees will be out of jobs, because they couldn't do their jobs without a computer. Maybe that's what he meant.
and it will create a cascading effect, no new graduates into the industry since they would be discouraged from the field altogether or even enroll in a college.
tell him to automate these nuts
lol. Lmao, even
I mean, the idea that all white-collar jobs could be automated is obviously stupid. But even if just 50% could be made redundant by increased productivity, or 20%, that would generate enormous downward pressure on wages and salaries and turn this kind of job into college-degree burger flipping, economically.
The world went through the very similar blue-collar job destruction in the 80s and 90s. Back then, Conservatives decided this was all a Very Good Thing, and Neoliberals shrugged. The made vast swaths of industrial areas suddenly derelict and impoverished. It's hard to believe that Detroit was once one of the wealthiest cities in America.
We must tax companies that use AI to reduce workforce to offset cost benefits. Society will have to deal with the suddenly impoverished accountants and lawyers and needs extra revenue.
The worst part of this AI revolution is that it affects most directly those that have the least experience, as it's easier to replace an entrant with software. Yet another way young people are screwed, yet another way society absolutely needs to step in to make sure the next generation has a fighting chance.
And now it's $80 an hour or more to hire a plumber. This is a bad deal no matter how you slice it.
And the commenter above is correct. If AI could do these jobs, so could cheap labor overseas. So the $80 an hour plumber is much more likely than the outsourcing that resulted in the destruction of Detroit as. manufacturing hub.
Blue collar jobs were mostly not automated, just sent overseas.
it would likely generate no-college graduates. even now some schools have enrollment issues, due to job prospects of already graduates telling thier friends/family entering college how bad it is.
I can't even begin to imagine what it must feel like to start college, to take on tens of thousands of dollars of debt, and not to have the faintest idea if there is actually going to be a job at the end of all that work. At least, where I live college is almost free.
if you looked at the reviews on yelp(yes i visit that, it was insightful to say the least of past students) in schools around you, or the one you graduated definitely not a good sign, at least for state school in the west. they got so desperate that they are reaching out to HS students not even close to graduating, and if they complete certain courses, they are guaranteed acceptance, when before it was the standard 3.0+ gpa and sat scores.(only some state schools, UC and Uni arnt affected that i know of).
back '12 now i know why a student i know at the time wanted to transfer out of the state school asap.
It sounds like your problem is with capitalism and not AI and automation. You don't like the extra productivity going towards private institutions rather than the workers they displaced or society as a whole, right?
Even with capitalism there is distributivism and there is "neoliberal" capitalism and there is mercantilism and oligopolism. The former two don't become worse or better from automation. More likely better. The latter two become worse because everything new is power-guarded from benefiting anyone other than elites having power.
It's the old question that was being explored in science fiction even before computers. It just took hundred years to reach the problem itself.
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So 18 months still before the bubble bursts?
I can't imagine saying anything so wildly ignorant in my professional career. He should be fired for publicly saying something that makes Microsoft sound like they have no idea what is going on in the real world.
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Blowing their load already I see. AI can't even automate individual tasks I do, it's not going to do shit to my job in 2 years
and they often hallucinate anyways too.
Oh cool so that means Star Citizen will be finished by then, right? AI should be able to build an even better version from scratch in a few hours, surely
Of course! I'm deeply sorry the previous version didn't compile. Here is your absolute 100% final working game "star citizen 2" as requested. And this is why it works: (blahblahblah)
(Any LLM ever)
Uh huh. Sure. I give it 18 months before AI is a footnote.
Maybe he is just trying to keep his job for another 18 months to get a huge payday.
AI has failed to effectively replace a single profession so far, and I do not see it fully replacing it in that timeframe.
Suleyman has been a known bullshitter for years now. Even people who agree with him wished he would shut the fuck up.
Put it on polymarket or something, I want to make some money off of such stupidity.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. That's never been more true than now. I think the US bailing out the rich in the last two recessions have perverted the normal risk reward calculations.
In 18 months I can see us where the Star Wars universe portrayed droids. As in 'Oh great, another talking tin can, just what the galaxy needs. Can someone turn this thing off?'
Bigfoot, Bermuda Triangle, AI taking over jobs.
"Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... MASS HYSTERIA!"
He's lying.
Can someone make a crying bro meme? Surely fits this (I have 0 meme skills. Just like my social skills)
all professional tasks” being done by AI. Most tasks that involve “sitting down at a computer” will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months,
So does that include working in AI? In 18 months we will have the AI program itself?
Quite the blanket statement, and as always with blanket statements, they are probably false.
Of course it could be true to a lesser degree, like maybe 20%, but "ALL" is ridiculous.
JFC jobs aren’t getting automated they are getting enhanced.
Work will shift it’s not going away.
This hyperbolic c suite AI nonsense is pure pump and dump.
I wouldn't even strictly say it's being enhanced. My employer cut 5% under the pretext of AI efficiencies. Those efficiencies being forcing adjacent teams to absorb the responsibilities of the laid off teams and then pointing us to leverage "AI" to overcome the increased workload.
End result is unqualified and overworked individuals are telling enterprise customers effectively AI slop and customers getting increasingly frustrated. Sure the volume of output has been increased, but the quality has taken massive nosedive which customers are noticing. This has directly led to an increase in churn in Saas.
So the corporate solution to that? Force those same already overworked individuals to start tracking churn/sales risks when they are being presented to customers as their "service advisor".
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