cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/7468087
In stark contrast to Russian expectations of a walkover in February 2022, the full-scale invasion, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, has turned out to be one of the slowest-moving military campaigns in history, the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center has stated in an overview.
In stark contrast to Russian expectations of a walkover in February 2022, the full-scale invasion, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, has turned out to be one of the slowest-moving military campaigns in history, the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center has stated in an overview.
In order to turn things around, Russia will have to take steps even more unpopular with its people than its mobilization efforts have already been, the report added.
At the same time, while Russia has far from achieved its strategic goals in its invasion of Ukraine, drones have rendered the front both more hazardous and unprecedentedly transparent, the overview went on.
Also noteworthy has been Ukraine's successes in longer-range strikes inside Russian territory, including when using its own Flamingo cruise missiles.
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"This week marks four years since the moment when the Russian Federation launched a full-scale war against Ukraine with the aim of demilitarizing Ukraine, replacing the Ukrainian government, and turning Ukraine into a Russian-controlled puppet state in which all key decisions would be made in Moscow. In total, the war in Ukraine has lasted 12 years," the intelligence center wrote in its overview of the situation on the front line.
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In purely military terms, the intelligence center said Russia's advances have been highly limited, and in some aspects Russia's situation at the start of the fifth year of the full-scale war is even worse than it was before 2022.
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The intelligence center added that in 2025 Russia's armed forces were recruiting 30,000 to 35,000 men each month, most of whom were used to replace frontline losses. "By the end of the fourth year of the full-scale war this recruitment model began to exhaust itself, and Russia has created the possibility of calling reservists into service and using them in military operations outside Russia's borders. In essence, this amounts to creating the conditions for concealed and gradual mobilization. Considering Russia's economic slowdown and other problems, the mobilization and deployment of reservists in the war in Ukraine could further increase internal tensions in Russia," was the intelligence center's assessment.
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