this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2026
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cross-posted from: https://piefed.ca/c/canada/p/557705/trump-is-spoiling-for-a-fight-over-canadian-potash-the-fertilizer-that-feeds-america-is-key

First few paragraphs:

In December 2025, United States president Donald Trump struck a deal that—uncharacteristically for such a spectacle-driven politician—barely registered among the general public.

The agreement committed the Belarusian government to releasing 123 political prisoners, a significant concession from one of Europe’s most entrenched authoritarian regimes. In return, Washington agreed to lift sanctions on Belarus’s potash exports—sanctions it escalated after the country’s rigged 2020 election and later expanded, in 2022, when Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory to invade Ukraine.

Why potash? Blame Canada. The United States can live without many imports. It can’t farm at scale without our potash. In 2024, the US imported about 12 million tonnes of the fertilizer from Canada, all of it dug from Saskatchewan, where it enters the US tariff-free under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Cut that supply, and American agriculture could grind to a halt.

As CUSMA heads into renegotiation this summer, the mood in Washington appears confrontational. Reopening Belarusian exports would give the US access to one of the few alternative global reserves—and, with it, leverage in an area where it currently has little.

I called up Matt Simpson, chief executive officer of Brazil Potash, a Brazilian company attempting to mine and produce potash fertilizer in the Amazon basin in a bid to supply more of that country’s demand. He explained why Canada has long been the backbone of the US potash supply, how reliance on Belarus introduces serious geopolitical and pricing vulnerabilities, and what this means for global food security if trade tensions escalate.

Potash is an interesting commodity. It rarely gets talked about in public but seems just as geopolitically important as oil or microchips.

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[–] gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works 12 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Lmfao are we gonna have a fucking famine? Because it sounds a whole fucking lot like we’re gonna have a famine, because we’re surely going to do some stupid shit to piss Canada off. Or, the regime will decide to invade Canada and take what it wants.

This timeline is so fucking dumb.

[–] dan1101@lemmy.world 5 points 3 weeks ago

It will probably be something like Trump demands a ridiculous deal, Canada refuses, whoops gotta invade them for national security. Wonder if that would be enough for Congress to impeach? There must be a line somewhere.

[–] Lushed_Lungfish@lemmy.ca 8 points 3 weeks ago

I will happily support our potash going almost anywhere except the United States.

[–] fox2263@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Trump convinced his cult that the US gets and needs nothing from Canada. So how will he spin this I wonder

[–] Bakkoda@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago

He just says things and they listen. No spinning needed. They will listen and agree because that's what boot lickers do.

[–] decapitae@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 weeks ago

Municiple waste is handled so inefficiently and poorly because oil and other businesses have a stanglehold on certain industry corners... Fix that issue, and you don't have to use those external industries anymore... fix it now and a whole lot less peoole will perish from the climate collapse that big oil and idiot hegemons have created - time draws close

[–] FreshParsnip@lemmy.ca 2 points 3 weeks ago

Whoever he negotiates with should demand he say please