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Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story
(www.timesofisrael.com)
Timing is everything
this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2026
712 points (98.4% liked)
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The real kicker is that this is from people who bet against Iran striking Israel.
Wouldn't even bet my life Israel's iron dome is invincible, especially considering Iran already successfully broke through it last year.
Or you know, Gaza a bunch of times with pipe rockets.
The thing about these missile defence systems is that, regardless of how advanced a system is, it can always be overcome by sheer volume of fire.
A common tactic is to saturate the sky with cheaper dummy missiles/drones that don't even have warheads, just to deplete missile defence stockpiles and protect the real missiles/drones from being intercepted.
This is happening a lot in Ukraine too.
TLDR; You're right to believe Iron Dome isn't invincible because there's no such thing as an invincible missile defence system.
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The most absurd class of prediction market bets are those where 100s or 1000s know the result before it is reported/finalized. This is one such event due to reporting delay. The 2nd most absurd class are where propaganda and "house interpretation" of outcomes can provide significant profits to those who can influence turning a $1 into a $0 outcome.
Don't forget that people who can make the decisions can also bet.