Android

This is not true at least here. There are no vendor locked phones AFAIK. Idk why, maybe another EU boss move. You need to start regulating this shit across the pond.

But why? As far as I know these projects make money from donations and surely the people that donate would have a custom ROM or root, speaking of which, there are app installers that work with Shizuku

I do not understand this statement.

You mean if it's not possible to easily sideload apps, people won't buy premium android phones?

Because if that's the reason, iPhones would be a massive failure.

If everyone in the world was like me and you, yes, the most popular phone would be the fairphone and maybe they would even sell it with a Linux ROM, while iPhones and other phones with locked bootloaders would be impossible to sell even at 95% discount, but we account for the 0.0001%

almost nobody i know irl installs apps outside google play through direct APK installs (or f-droid)

This won't even dent the premium phone market.

I feel like you're overestimating the number of people who buy a Google or Samsung device because they want to install third party apps. A lot of them buy an Android device because they just don't like Apple. Most folks don't install anything from anywhere other than the Play Store because they don't even know there are other choices.

In general, people's preferences are most often born from whatever their first device was, and nothing more, with little interest in what they can do with it other than what's required of them.

I wish that were true. But most consumers buy a phone based on a few metrics - the screen (large, bright, vibrant), fast CPU/GPU (mobile gamers), cameras, storage capacity, software support longevity, battery life, general bling (colors, shiny), and pre-chosen platform/cult (Android, iOS).

Techies like us care. But we're very much the exception, not the rule.

And if sideloading can be unlocked and available after a 24-hour wait - as Google suggests - then it'll matter even less.

This isn't going to move the needle at all. Most normal people don't give a shit, and unfortunately the normal people out number us by a lot.

For example, we have digital ID that you can load on the phone your ID card and driving license, which is not allowed on unlocked phones.

Yeah that's a problem, one only you and your government can fix, but it is indeed an issue.

Also, McDonald app doesn't work on unlocked phones ...

My brother the McDonald app is spyware, it only exists to sell your data to brokers who sell it to advertisers and the NSA. If you're just going to install spyware anyway there's no purpose to switch to a custom ROM. Is all your message data, files, etc, really worth $1.00 off a McChicken?

Just lock the bootloader again? I don't have Google on my Android and can use banking apps and most others that don't have a hard requirements on some Google API.

It's easy enough to work around most of it, with web apps. You can even install them to have separate icons. Granted, there are some things that are impossible, like digital ID, but there aren't any that fundamentally affect phone usability, for my personal use.

What's holding me up is work stuff. I get a stipend to have a work phone, so I just use my personal device, but I'm getting a separate device for work soon so I can cut out everything Google/Microsoft on me personal device. Digital control and privacy matters.

I'd rather not be able to have a digital ID on my phone if I have to allow a company full access to scan my stuff, how do I know they won't delete my ID at some point and just say it is what it is?