Last Hungarian election international observers declared the election free but not fair. Correct counting of votes, but full government control over Hungarian news media blasting pro-Orban messaging for months.
Assuming the same thing happens, there is a real possibility that he legitimately loses to Peter Magyar's party. Polls predict that Orban will lose (as usual, take polls with massive skepticism, but that's the prediction).
In a hypothetical well-crafted treaty (which I agree Russia would never sign) there would be penalties attached to breaking the conditions. Sanction snap-backs, for example.