FriendlyMaple221

Abstract
Contrary to much of the conventional wisdom, taking stronger actions on climate change may enhance economic growth, even as conventionally measured, but even more so, in terms of societal well-being. We identify the flaws in the models and analyses which contend that there must be a trade-off and explain the mechanisms and dynamic forces which have the potential to enhance growth. Critically, there are numerous market failures that result in suboptimal economic performance. We explain how addressing climate change reduces the bite of these failures and enhances the incentives and political will to address them. We identify packages of policies that alleviate market failures, enhance growth, and reduce carbon emissions. Finally, we argue that the green transition is coming at a time when, both because of persistent deficiencies of aggregate demand and advances in technology, including artificial intelligence and robotization, the macroeconomic opportunity costs of strong climate actions may be especially low and the benefits particularly high.

Abstract
The aim of this perspective is to argue that carbon pricing is not unjust. Two important dimensions of justice are distributive and procedural (sometimes called “participatory”) justice. In terms of distributive justice, it is argued that carbon pricing can be made distributionally just through revenue recycling and that it should be expected that even neutral reductions in emissions will generate progressive benefits, both internationally and regionally. In terms of procedural justice, it is argued that carbon pricing is in principle compatible with any procedure; however, there is also a particular morally justifiable procedure, the Citizens’ Assembly, which has been implemented in Ireland on this precise question and has generated broad agreement on carbon pricing. It is suggested that this morally matters because such groups are like “ideal advisors” that offer morally important advice. Finally, an independent objection is offered to some ambitious alternatives to carbon pricing like Green New Deal-type frameworks, frameworks that aim to simultaneously tackle multiple social challenges. The objection is that these will take too long to work in a climate context, both to develop and to iterate.

Abstract
The continued rise in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions challenges international climate policy, particularly the goals of the Paris Agreement. This study forecasts emissions through 2030 for the eleven highest-emitting nations–China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, South Korea, and Germany–while assessing their progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Using data from 1990 to 2023, we apply a robust data pipeline comprised of six machine learning models and sequential squeeze feature selection incorporating eleven economic, industrial, and energy consumption variables. We have modelled the scenario with an average prediction accuracy of 96.21%. Results indicate that Russia is on track to exceed its reduction targets, while Germany and the United States will fall slightly short. China, India, Japan, Canada, South Korea, and Indonesia are projected to miss their commitments by significant margins. At the same time, Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to increase emissions rather than reduce them. These findings highlight the need for strengthened energy efficiency policies, expanded renewable energy adoption, enhanced carbon pricing mechanisms, and stricter regulatory enforcement. Emerging economies require international collaboration and investment to support low-carbon transitions. This study provides a data-driven assessment of emission trajectories, emphasizing the urgency of coordinated global action, technological innovation, and adaptive policy measures to align emissions with the 1.5ºC warming threshold. This work represents a novel integration of multivariate machine learning modelling, data-driven feature selection, and policy-oriented emission forecasts, establishing new methodological and empirical benchmarks in climate analytics.

Abstract
Driven by the urgent need to mitigate climate change and achieve net-zero emissions, carbon pricing has emerged as a critical policy tool in major economies worldwide. This study compares carbon pricing in the EU, China, Canada, and Singapore, evaluating effectiveness in emission reductions, with the EU ranking first with high carbon prices, road market coverage, and strict penalties, based on carbon price per capita. Conversely, Singapore’s position as fourth in carbon price per capita among these four most mature carbon markets, Singapore has a high GDP per capita and lower carbon prices. Canada’s fragmented provincial policies and China’s limited market coverage, despite being the top global emitter. Our analysis reveals three critical success factors: (1) higher carbon prices per capita are essential for carbon reduction, (2) the necessity of penalties on carbon price per capita from EUR 20–EUR 100, and (3) expanded market coverage maximizes impact. To address global disparities, we propose a Uniform Carbon Pricing Mechanism under the Global Carbon Resilience Framework (GCRF), based on carbon price per capita tiered pricing: EUR 100/t (developed), EUR 30–50 (developing), and EUR 5–15 (least-developed countries). This balanced system supports vulnerable regions while cutting emissions, proving that fair carbon pricing is crucial for climate goals and economic stability.