Protests have occurred in approximately 180 towns and cities.
perestroika
joined 2 years ago
The son of the shah (he hasn't ruled as a shah, his father did) is a seemingly smart and politically competent person, who seems outwardly like a liberal democrat (but one can't see into people).
His problem is that he isn't part of a militant organization, and he was brought up in peace and plenty. They listen to his words and respect him, but he may not have the kind of colleagues to bring down the (quite bloodthirsty) ayatollah's regime. :( Overthrowing a country requires lots of organized people who are considerably less polite.
Btw, the Iranian communist party talks of 600ish dead and 11000 arrested.
They don't update their sites as often as news organizations, and don't have so many contacts to intgrate information from.
MeK - the People's Mojahedin (leftist, terrorist tactics, based in emigration, in south-eastern Europe) - updated their site yesterday, says death toll "over 3000". But it took them a day to get the information out, since they speak of Monday in the text but published on Tuesday.
The US is an awful lot late. One can only jump in to assist living people.
They could have acted on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and now it's Wednesday.
The US always has contingency plans for limited strikes against adversaries, and considers Iran an adversary. It could have launched a limited strike (e.g. "to supress government communications") within 24 hours.
Now that 5 days have passed, each day bringing more death to protesters, I guess Trump's promise to assist them was a bluff, and if they did let it encourage themselves - they shouldn't have.
So far, to my knowledge (very incomplete knowledge) the only factions which have fought the Iranian security forces with some limited effectiveness, and thus prevented massacres in their home regions, have been Kurdish militant groups (political parties with armed factions). I wish them luck, because they did their people a service.
Regarding the attitude of Iranian people, it's hard to measure precisely, but the article gives one suggestion:
Amiry-Moghaddan told CBS News many Iranians wouldn't believe that narrative from their leaders.
"Iranian people are so fed up with the regime, and so desperate to come out of this system," he said. "I remember that I used to ask many people, with different backgrounds, 'Who would you support?' And all of them basically say that we would support anyone who can remove the Islamic Republic. Iran is a country with a lot of different kinds of people, different opinions. Some would like to have monarchies, some are opposed to monarchy, but I think the priority is to remove this regime."
It's not secret that Kurds need Iran like fish need bicycles. In reality, they need either their own state, or if that is impossible - a region where education can be organized in Kurdish and local autonomy is extensive.
However, if opposition in Persian speaking regions gets killed, minority groups cannot carry Iran through a revolution. But they can slow down repression by keeping borders permeable (so people can flee and things can be smuggled), and counteract the crackdown by providing a few experienced people to Persian areas, where the ayatollah has a stronger hold. Hopefully - to break open some warehouses, defeat their guards, distribute the content and advise people about tactics.
The article in Jerusalem Post is backed by other sources, for example, here is yesterday's interview with Amir Karimi of the PJAK (Kurdistan Free Life Party).
Rebaz: Since late 2023, and particularly following October 7th, the Middle East has been undergoing very rapid and serious changes. And Iran and Kurdistan are at the center of these changes. Currently, the streets of Iran are volatile, with protesters out demanding a change in the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Despite the internet and communication lines being cut, the latest reports speak of dozens killed and thousands arrested. Recently, the Kurdish parties of Eastern Kurdistan (Iranian Kurdistan) released a joint statement, announcing their decision to take steps toward future stages within a shared political framework. I am currently sitting on the Kurdish mountains along the Iran-Iraq border with Mr. Amir Karimi, Co-Chair of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), to discuss these questions.)
There are also reports of Kurdish troops challenging and defeating Islamic Republic troops in some localities. And his words indicate it's not an accident:
Of course, the Islamic Republic deals with all freedoms—for women, for nations, for those issues—very harshly, especially the Kurdish issue. For example, even now, a very high percentage of those being executed and arrested are Kurds. It is very significant. Therefore, in the actions of the Islamic Republic, we are always forced to protect ourselves. And we are forced to protect our people. Now that there is violence, we believe that the people must be able to protect themselves. Of course, the Kurdish people have some experience in this area. We also have a philosophy in this area called Legitimate Self-Defense. Every society must protect itself.
But don’t call yourself an anarchist then either.
Oh pardon me, high gatekeeper of the anarchist label, for offending thee ever since 2006, whence I usurped that label and filed off the serial numbers too, and used said stolen label to participate in demos, squat a few houses, start an autonomous social center, help out other people with their autonomous social centers, participate in really really free markets, do vegan dinners and picnics, open a freeshop and help run it, and write software that is free and open source - all the time using this label in violation of your highnesses command of only spreading the Official Anarchism (as cast in the Concrete Tablets of Official Anarchism by high-standing and indisputable anarcho-bureaucrats)... and I confess I've written political articles under that false label too, denouncing populism and sometimes promoting sortition. I fully expect your high anarchisticalness to promptly tell me that I have indeed done all this wrong, and my life has been in vain.
More concisely: I don't need your advise to check if something is anarchist. Get off your high horse or ride into the sunset on it.
In short, your proposal, is to do nothing while they get killed.
I'm going to ignore your proposal and try doing something, even if not very effective.
Some more information written by anarchists a few days ago. Thus, already outdated, but providing it regardless.
Well, he promised to protect those people. I think he better start doing that until it's late, because threatening to intervene did not work.
But there are no US fleets stationed near Iran at this time. If some move towards Iran, they'll move slowly. AirTraffic isn't indicating a large movement of planes either - although military planes may keep their transponders off.
It very much seems he'll be late and everyone who risked their life will be dead soon, and protests are going to be suppressed in a matter of days.
Advise:
Stop ranting like a tankie.
If you must have leftist information sources, stop consuming Western leftist information, several of them know Iran so poorly that they couldn't tell apart night from a hat on their eyes...
Day 16 of Iran Uprising: Death toll surpasses 3,000; Regime officials threaten ‘no mercy’ as global isolation grows - MeK about the situation on Monday (since then, 2 days of protesting and shooting protesters have occurred)