Define "know".
-
An LLM can have text describing how it works and be trained on that text and respond with an answer incorporating that.
-
LLMs have no intrinsic ability to "sense" what's going on inside them, nor even a sense of time. It's just not an input to their state. You can build neural-net-based systems that do have such an input, but ChatGPT or whatever isn't that.
-
LLMs lack a lot of the mechanisms that I would call essential to be able to solve problems in a generalized way. While I think Dijkstra had a valid point:
The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.
...and we shouldn't let our prejudices about how a mind "should" function internally cloud how we treat artificial intelligence...it's also true that we can look at an LLM and say that it just fundamentally doesn't have the ability to do a lot of things that a human-like mind can. An LLM is, at best, something like a small part of our mind. While extracting it and playing with it in isolation can produce some interesting results, there's a lot that it can't do on its own: it won't, say, engage in goal-oriented behavior. Asking a chatbot questions that require introspection and insight on its part won't yield interesting result, because it can't really engage in introspection or insight to any meaningful degree. It has very little mutable state, unlike your mind.
Russia has a population of 146,028,325, of which this would be 6.8%. These are tremendously-disproportionate numbers; the 10 million here would be about a quarter Ukraine's prewar population. My expectation---without trying to do a deeper analysis looking at what military hardware might wind up in the hands of the seceding oblasts---is that absent other changes in Russia, or political unwillingness to fight against seceding oblasts, or outside direct involvement, there would be a civil war and the resources of the other 93% would most-likely defeat them and re-extend control over them.
That might have a risk of nuclear civil war, depending upon how the military acts and what control of the arsenal looks like. The prospect of nuclear war amongst ex-member states of the Soviet Union was a principal concern of the US about the time that the Soviet Union broke up.
EDIT: Updated numbers to reflect the fact that Saint Petersburg isn't part of Leningrad Oblast.