By Daniel Campione. La Libertad Avanza (LLA) won by a landslide in the legislative elections, approaching a 10% lead over Fuerza Patria and similar parties. It prevailed in most of the country with votes from diverse social backgrounds. It even managed the feat of overcoming the fateful day of September 7 and eking out a victory in the province of Buenos Aires. The composition of Congress has changed considerably in its favor, opening the possibility that it will not need so many decrees of necessity and urgency and vetoes.
The reasons for voting (and abstaining)
The stagnation of the economy, the difficulties in making ends meet, the mistreatment of people with disabilities and retirees, cases of corruption, including links to drug trafficking, did not constitute causes for a defeat or, in any case, a "tie" for LLA, as was assessed before the elections.
Absenteeism was significant, the highest since 1983. A portion of potential opposition voters decided not to leave their homes. They may be dissatisfied, even furious, but they find no incentive in any of the existing political options.
When it comes to questioning the motives of those who voted for LLA, a number of factors may come together. In many sectors, the idea persists that there is nothing less auspicious than a return of Peronism to positions of power. Some of them believe this because they have always been anti-Peronist. Others believe it because they cannot forgive the resounding failure of the last Peronist government and are unwilling to continue down that path.
The government also worked on the idea that the current economic hardships should be the prelude to a recovery that brings, if not prosperity, at least a more balanced situation. The path we've taken should not be abandoned, even at the cost of sacrifice.
It's been proven that many, even amidst scarcity and hardship, maintain hopes. And they've chosen to stick with that bet. With greater or lesser conviction, they voted for the ruling party.
The decline in inflation likely also contributed to this decision. A minimum of predictability and direction in the day-to-day economy is generally appreciated by ordinary citizens.
Another element of everyday economic life that may have had an impact is the above-inflation increase in the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), which millions of people receive.
Donald Trump's "help" deserves special mention, seen as a supposed salvation by a large segment of the electorate. The blackmail that the flow of dollars would be cut off if Milei was defeated seems to have worked with a segment of the population.
American capitalism and its political structures made a strong bet. Their theatrical excesses, such as the mistreatment of the Argentine delegation in the Oval Office and the arrival of JP Morgan from the convention, were harshly criticized. Clearly, these objections to the intervention in national economic management by the declining great power made no impact. The long tradition of anti-Yankee sentiment among a large portion of Argentine society no longer exists, or at least it no longer manifests itself in the same way as in other eras.
Faced with the failure of the exchange rate policy and the threat of economic collapse, the "bailout" from the north was seen as a safeguard against a complete collapse with no end in sight. The self-serving and gloomy interpretation of the events of 2001 may act as a scarecrow to be ward off.
Another element for discussion is how much of the vote for LLA represents the advancement of neoliberal ideology and how much represents a change in life and work relationships and the resulting individualistic retreat. The precariously employed and "uberized" suffer a loss of ties to coworkers and a loss of references in unions or other types of collective organizations.
It is often accompanied by a generational divide. Those who did not experience the modest Creole version of the "welfare state" may have a different perception of various aspects of daily life and their way of thinking and experiencing it. They may be unreceptive to a set of demands and resent a state that fails to respond. This situation is apt to induce affinities with "libertarian" proposals.
Something else that's evident is that the government's relentless deregulation and privatization agenda hasn't yet generated widespread condemnation. Slogans like "the country is not for sale" haven't caught on beyond those most inclined to accept them. And the persistent, but limited, protests haven't become the preserve of the majority, at least at the time of voting. The repressive acts didn't seem to have a profound impact.
The shortcomings of the opposite side of the road.
The Peronist opposition failed to rise to the challenge. It locked itself into the slogan of "stopping Milei," with no positive proposals. It spoke to those convinced, but didn't enter the fray. It preferred to persuade itself that a rough repeat of the September result in Buenos Aires, and perhaps its expansion to the rest of the country, was "natural." In this inertia, it also failed to seek out those inclined to abstain.
The governor of Buenos Aires did take the trouble to discredit the more leftist positions. He treated the questions about the legitimacy of the debt and the proposal to break with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as childish.
Once again, there's an insistence on ambiguities and timidity when it comes to putting forward proposals critical of the real power. At least it's not clear whether they're fighting for a different model for the country or merely aiming for an orderly administration of it.
The "third-party" effort attempted by the provincial governors and some allies was a resounding failure. Between the shameful ruling party during the first half of the current administration and the selective opposition of recent months, they failed to establish a credible profile. Polarization prevailed, and it certainly benefited the governing forces.
The remnants of radicalism, the Civic Coalition, and some attempts at a revamped center-left failed to take off and became irrelevant.
Along other lines, the left reaped the benefits of its independent and honest spirit, its consistent opposition to all the ruling party's proposals, and its commitment and active presence in all the struggles. It achieved a strong showing in the province, which allowed it to renew the two seats up for grabs there.
Regarding Buenos Aires City, a special highlight is in order. Myriam Bregman approached double digits and seems to be consolidating her path to becoming a national figure. Many people love her, and her voter turnout has increased.
The FIT-U has the opportunity to exert its influence on the streets and in the political arena. It has garnered growing support from other organizations and independents, in response to a policy of greater openness. It is hoped that it will persevere in this policy and expand it. Those who await a genuine alternative will appreciate it and act accordingly.
At the time of taking stock.
The undeniable fact is that Javier Milei has established a leadership that could be weakened by a worse economic downturn than the current one in the near future, which is not at all out of the question. What is certain is that he has already left his mark; this has not been a passing phenomenon or an accident of history without major significance.
Today, he emerges victorious and ready to accelerate the path of regressive reforms. He even presents himself as a herald of new consensus, even with the solemn tone of expanding the "May Pact."
Faced with this, we need to think and act with a medium-term focus, and be attentive to the evolution of local and global capitalism. LLA exists above all because it connects well with that logic and the interests that derive from it.
It's a political proposal that connects with helplessness, anger, deep disbelief, and painful isolation. These situations have garnered him audiences and votes that bring legitimacy to an agenda of economic ultra-liberalism and widespread social regression that is very convenient for the constellation of real international and local power.
He is on the side of agribusiness, energy production for export, and the exploitation of minerals of strategic importance on a global scale. He embodies the most complete subordination to the dictates of American business and the foreign policy of the revered superpower.
The Argentine president and his collaborators are devoted admirers of the magnates of the digital age and are at their command. And they have Trump's personal support, a support that has roots that go far beyond the current US president and his arbitrary actions.
The fight against this state of affairs should not be solely against the most prominent figures or the most heinous misdeeds, but rather in favor of an alternative that aims for a different kind of society. It has been proven that proposing "brakes" is of no use.
Proposals for collective and solidarity action, common ownership and management, self-organization, and self-government are needed. These are the most relevant and promising aspects of democracy and socialism.
