Climate Change

A new study finds that presenting the same continuous climate data, such as incremental changes in temperature, in binary form -- such as whether a lake did or did not freeze in the winter -- significantly increases people's ability to see the impact of climate change.

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Tropical deforestation was found to cause large reductions in precipitation using a range of observation-based datasets1. However, the limitations of satellite-based space-for-time statistical analysis have hindered understanding of the roles of reshaped mesoscale atmospheric circulation and regional precipitation recycling at different scales. These effects are considered nonlocal effects, which are distinct from the local effects governed by deforestation-induced reductions in evapotranspiration (ET). Here we show reversed precipitation responses to Amazon deforestation across wet and dry seasons. During the wet season, deforested grids experienced a noteworthy increase in precipitation (0.96 mm per month per percentage point forest loss), primarily attributed to enhanced mesoscale atmospheric circulation (that is, nonlocal effect). These nonlocal increases weaken with distance from deforested grids, leading to significant precipitation reductions in buffers beyond 60 km. Conversely, during the dry season, precipitation decreases in deforested grids and throughout all analysis buffers, with local effects from reduced ET dominating. Our findings highlight the intricate balance between local effects and nonlocal effects in driving deforestation-precipitation responses across different seasons and scales and emphasize the urgent need to address the rapid and extensive loss of forest in the Amazon region.

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• earth.com article
• full study in Science

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Please note that this article contains questionable arithmetic:

That brings the annual mean global concentration close to 430 ppm, about 40 percent more than the pre-industrial level, and enough to heat the planet by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius).

The actual figure from NOAA is 428.15 ppm (last updated 2025-04-14). If we use the more precise pre-industrial estimate of 278 ppm, then we get an increase of 54%, which is indeed "about 40%" if we round to the nearest multiple of 40%.

Climate models tend to underestimate the cooling effect of aerosol pollution, and the climate sensitivity is actually about 50% greater than previously thought, so a more realistic estimate of the warming caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration over the pre-industrial level is 4.5°C. If we assume that the relationship is linear, this means that the current level of 428.15 ppm is "enough to heat the planet" by 4.5°C * 54% = 2.43°C, which is... more than 1.5°C.

the 2023-2024 spike of the global average surface temperature, which has also not been fully explained

Yes it has.

Global temperatures in the first quarter of 2025 were the second warmest on record, extending a remarkable run of exceptional warmth that began in July 2023.

This is despite weak La Niña conditions during the first two months of the year – which typically result in cooler temperatures.

With temperature data for the first three months of the year now available, Carbon Brief finds that 2025 is very likely to be one of the three warmest years on record.

However, it currently remains unlikely that temperatures in 2025 will set a new annual record.

In addition to near-record warmth, the start of 2025 has seen record-low sea ice cover in the Arctic between January and March – and the second-lowest minimum sea ice extent on record for Antarctica.

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• Indonesia added 1.9 gigawatts of new coal capacity in 2024, the third-highest globally, mainly to power metal smelters supporting the electric vehicle industry — despite global efforts to phase out coal.
• Captive coal plants built for industry have tripled in capacity since 2019, exploiting a loophole in Indonesia’s coal moratorium and undermining its climate pledges under the Paris Agreement and Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).
• Indonesia now has the fifth-largest coal fleet in the world and plans to expand by another 26.7 GW by 2030, with serious concerns about economic viability, environmental damage, and public health in regions like Sulawesi and North Maluku.
• Government-backed alternatives like biomass cofiring and carbon capture are criticized as costly and ineffective, while experts urge Indonesia to shift meaningfully toward renewables to align with global energy and climate trends.

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• A new study of Colombia’s lowland forests and savannas finds that the nation may have extensive peatlands — organic wetland soils formed over thousands of years — holding as much as 70 years’ worth of Colombia’s carbon emissions. Protecting them from agricultural development is essential to preventing greenhouse gas releases.
• Researchers made peatland estimates by taking sediment cores in 100 wetlands, quantifying peat content, then building a model to predict locales for other peat-forming wetlands using satellite imaging. Peat was found in unexpected ecosystems, such as nutrient-poor white-sand forests, widespread in northern South America.
• Sampling in many locations was only possible due to the ongoing but fragile peace process between the Colombian government and armed rebel groups. In some places, security has already deteriorated and further sampling is unsafe, making this study’s scientific estimate a unique snapshot for now.
• Most Colombian peatlands are remote, but deforestation is intensifying along the base of the Andes, putting some wetlands at risk. Colombia’s existing REDD+ projects have been controversial, but opportunities may exist to combine payments for ecosystem services with peacebuilding if governance and security can be improved.

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Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers have likely caused trillions of dollars in economic damages due to intensifying heatwaves over the last 30 years, according to new peer-reviewed research.

The top five emitters – Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Gazprom (Russia), Chevron (US), ExxonMobil (US), and BP (British), respectively – are responsible for about $9 trillion in heat-related damages, according to the study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

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The open-access paper is here (webpage) or here (PDF)

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Coral reefs around the world have been subjected to unprecedented heat stress since early 2023. A new report finds heat-related coral bleaching has damaged corals in more than 80 countries, making it the most extensive bleaching event ever recorded, with no clear end in sight.

Between January 2023 and April 2025, heat stress impacted 84% of coral reefs worldwide, from the Mesoamerican Reef in the Caribbean to so-called supercorals in the Red Sea, an area previously believed to be resilient to damage caused by extreme temperatures.

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