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"fear of decline"
also, your argument is based on the totally-nonsense assumption that there "has to be a certain number of workers to sustain the elderly" which is bullshit (frankly). it's not about the number of workers; it's about the productive output, and as we all know, that has risen tremendously the last few years. So there should be no shortage of workers regardless of how many workers there are. Everything else is bullshit the news (which btw are owned by billionaires) tell you because they want to sack a significant part of productive output for themselves - well ofc if rich take 90% of output it's not gonna be enough for everyone. but that's the rich's fault and has nothing to do with "there not being enough workers".
You're not making an argument, there. You're showing a graph that's misleading because it starts at fucking 10000 BCE. Look at a graph of Japan if you want to talk about Japan, and of the current generations not prehistory.
Ah, yes, because having a machine that can churn out pottery like noone's business helps a lot with elderly and palliative care.
There is absolutely a limit how few kids a society can have before it collapses. Where that is is currently not particularly clear because the situation is unprecedented, but that there is a limit is crystal clear. 10 young people caring for 100 bed-ridden elderly and one kid, how long is that going to last, even if you automate everything else?
His graph is still valid, as the exponential growth doesn't really matter if we start from 0 BCE or 10000 BCE.
Here's
Even if we would loose 60% of the population now, we would still be 1.5 times the population of 1900 (9miljard x 0.4=3.6 >2)
But you're missing the point that the population of Japan specifically is on the decline and has been for decades.
Even if we take out the cost of pensions for the elderly out of the equation, if people aren't having kids to replace themselves, there won't be enough working age people to fill every job needed.
For reference, the Japanese birth rate as of June 2024 was only 1.2. If that trend continues, in say 20-30 years, there will be about 1/2 of adults then as there are now.
The easiest and most immediate solution for Japan (and South Korea which is also having the same problem) would be to ease immigration so that more people can come in to work. But that doesn't help in the long run nor does it address the cultural and societal factors that have lead to this point. And even then, since both countries are so homogenous, it would be hard for natives to accept a huge influx of immigrants.