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I’ll take a stab at a “serious” answer, although be cautioned that this thinking is irrational.
If they worked, we would see manufacturers almost instantly beginning construction on US factories, opening new ones and reopening shuttered plants. We would see trade “balance” in terms of imports and exports with every trading partner we have.
why? it costs millions of dollars to construct new factories. Maybe billions, depending on the industry. It takes 7+ years to bring a new factory online. more to get all the kinks worked out and at full production.
Trump is supposed to be in office for only 4 years, at best, after which his tariffs will go away. it would be easier to simply just not ship to the US. which is how trade partners responded to the Hawley-Smoot Act in 1930, and which made the Great Depression that much harder to get out of.
That assumes America is still a democracy in 4 years. We are only a few months in and it is already not looking great.
and you think that's an argument to spin up new factories? not really.
If the US collapses into complete fascism, everyone inside is either going to be cut off from the global market. for a foreign company, spinning up factories in the US, when, in four years, they might literally get those investments yeeted from them is stupid. and that's really the best case.