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There surely will become somewhat of a black market, but not in the same way as weed or harder drugs. Smoking doesn't really give you a buzz except for the first few times, so people won't go to the black market for the effect, but rather to keep the withdrawels at bay. It would seem incredibly silly to buy cigarettes like people buy weed, when all it really does for a first timer is taste horrible, make you cough, and if you actually manage to inhale, make you a bit dizzy. Sure, some people from 2009 and onwards will start to smoke, but it'll be a whole lot less people than today.
You realize in the 1930s there was a black market for cigerettes when they weren't even illegal, right?
Mafias had support from the people, because mobs supplied booze, which WAS illegal. They made so much money from that, they started robbing cigerette trucks. Then selling legal cigerettes, at full cost, simply because the people trusted the mob over the government.
There's a huge black market for tobacco products here in Australia and it's completely legal, simply having the tax on it so high has led to massive smuggling operations, black market cigarettes in many convenience stores, and a fire bombing epidemic of those same convenience stores for carrying competitors black market cigs. It doesn't even need to be illegal. Just too expensive.
Yup, a local substance plug sells cigarettes in addition to other goods and services, the cigarettes are less than the shops.
1930s didnt have overwhelming evidence that smoking was stupid, addictive, and disastrously dangerous to your health.
Smoking doesnt produce the same euphoria and consistency of drugs on the current blackarket. The juice wont be worth the squeeze. Financially, there wont be enough "consumers" for a cigarette black market.
I think you misunderestimate how addictive cigerettes are. My friends mom goes through $80 worth of cigerettes every 2-3 days.
Real question- is that volume or branding? Depending on where you are/what brand, that might be a 1.5-2 pack a day habit of higher quality smokes; not unheard of for a typical heavy smoker. If you’re spending that much on ass-end packs that cost you $6/ea, that’s pushing 4 packs a day, which is like legendary status few can achieve anymore.
Oh, I thought you were replying to thr other message. Still, it's just below here, where I said she smokes 5-8 packs a day.
She also has this bag of loose tabacco where she rolls her own. She uses that when she can't afford marlborrow.
Right,but theyre not banning it for people like her.... theyre banning it for people born after 2008. Is your mom 18 years old?
Are you claiming that minors don't smoke because it's not legal? That's what you're going with?
God youre annoying.
Youre just looking to be combative. Youre cool dude, so cool, just so so cool that you should go back to reddit. So fucking cool how you intentionally need to argue the most braindead niche "uhm actually" talking point you can muster.
You can just not respond next time mate. When you type out a comment like this; just go "nah" and hit "discard" next time.
Also, your entire point rests on "they won't do it because it's bad for them AND illegal".
Have you ever been a teenager? Something that they are told "your too young to do that" is like crack for them. It's not "niche" to consider this major factor of how people get addicted early in life.
I'm proud of you
How much is a packet there?
About $8, but she smokes 5-8 packs a day.
I can't see how this is even possible for a couple, much less one person.
I GREW UP IN A HOUSE OF CHAIN SMOKERS, my older sister and brother and both parents.
Are you sure about this or just guestimating?
Holy shitballs.
Is she just smoking nonstop the whole day?
I've seen her laying on the couch, asleep, sits up, eyes not open, reaches in the drawer, lights her own hair on fire, sits there on fire, smoking an unlit cigerette as the rest of us scramble to put her out.
That's hardcore. Are any other substances involved?
There already is a big, thriving black market for cigarettes in the EU country I'm in, simply due to high tobacco taxes. I can only assume the same will be true for other places that tax similarly. Are you really saying that an outright ban won't result in a greater unmet demand, and thus more customers shopping at the black markets? It sounds unlikely to me that black market dealers will close up shop, because of a ban on the legal sale of cigarettes. The black market is already banned, but that's not exactly stopping them.
Cigarette companies add things to make them more addictive, including chemical flavorings and extra nicotine. It doesn't negate what you said, but enhances it.
Sure, but a lot has changed since then, and while that totally could happen, I'm doubting it'll be widespread in any way.
"yeah, but, nah, trust me bro"
would have been a better response. At least build your conclusion from something. You're responding to someone giving a historical example.
"Times are different" just means it could be worse or better. It doesn't conclude which or to what degree. You didn't say anything.
I think it might be different nowadays. We know now that smoking causes cancer. Also the world is in color, which makes not smoking more enjoyable.
That must explain the reason for having the "T" in ATF then.
No no no. You're missing the H.
Aqua Teen Hunger Force.
They're number one in the hood, G!
Mate, you got no fucking clue. This will create entire new organised crime markets.
Maybe at first, yeah. But in 50 years, when almost nobody under 60 smokes and it's prohibited everywhere, who would go out of their way to start this particular habit?
As a lifelong smoker, one of the hardest hurdle to quitting is going out, having a couple of drinks, then seeing other people smoke and resisting the urge to go buy an easily available pack.
Exactly.
Do you remember being a teenager? You're describing something that is extremely addictive AND the government is banning you from trying it because you were born too late. This is just asking for a shit show. I'd rather the cigs be guaranteed not to contain lead (or whatever). Forcing a black market just removes all regulation on the vice. Each year that market will get larger. It's literally a guaranteed increase of demand in the black market over time.
I really think the methods used in the US to reduce smoking really need to be duplicated in other countries. The US literally has like one good thing that we got right somehow. In comparison to Asia or a lot of Europe I never see people smoking.
Vapes are a whole different story. But, even before vapes were a thing the US really did a good job at making smoking socially unacceptable through multiple policies.
We literally have examples of methods that work well AND methods that don't. Outright bans never work with vices.
It can't be taken 1:1. Vices being banned in the past was typically because legislators saw them as productivity drains, despite the pleasure it provided. Therefore making those bans inherently tyrannical to habitual users and certain non-users, incentivizing disobedience.
But this time, it's being banned for a group that's not habitually using already, meaning extraordinary reasons would require them to become habitual users in the first place. And smoking is typically not very pleasant at the start to begin with, so there's little incentive to start. And, unlike in the past, smoking is no longer present everywhere. And of course there's the knowledge that it will give you cancer and cut your lifespan.
There's just not much enjoyment left, so even if 1% of those affected by the rolling ban slip through the cracks with an underground market, there isn't the room for growth that sustains or spreads an illegal market like for eg. recreational drugs. Which is why those bans need to be enforced to perfection to have a chance to work, which they never do, and which is why they never work.
There are so many ways for people to harm themselves that we don't need to ban because they come with severe risk to the person, so they self regulate. The only reason smoking needs that ban is because of how widespread smoking was, and so even if way less people start smoking than before, that's still way too many people. A ban just needs to be successful at getting far less people to start, not absolutely halt every single usage, and eventually it will fade from culture on it's own.
EDIT: Slight corrections. But kinda wild to get overly downvoted for the thing pretty much everyone else is saying in this thread, just with a little more in-depth analysis. Come out and tell me where I'm wrong, I don't think you can.
I wouldn't be suprised if smoking turns into one of those things that old people do, not cool at all
In the states, it already seems like it is. Vaping is an all-generations hobby still
I never understood the "banning doesn't work" argument. The reason we banned heroin and methamphetamine is because use was rampant without prescriptions. You'd have to be stupid to think that meth at Walmart wouldn't cause an increase in usage.
... regardless, in this situation prohibition would be effective. Vapes are superior nicotine delivery systems. After years of trying to quit, I transitioned from tobacco in less than a week. Not having the fear of death hanging over me is an indescribable relief.
Look at the lengths people go for every small thing that they can't have or simply get the option to pay less for it. It's not a matter of what that thing gives and in what strength, simply if there is demand there will be supply.
They don't give you a buzz right now. You think prohibition liquor was just as safe as what was produced afterwards, what with all those ridiculous safety regulations gone?
OMG so many dead people from radiator gin.
Lmao. It's okay to criminalize millions of people to achieve our health goals!
As effed up as the US is I'm so glad I don't live in the UK. What a dystopian government and the British people consistently roll over for it. It's funny to watch them, of all people, call us apathetic.
Who is this fantasy person who told you anyone is going to criminalize people for buying cigarettes?
It's incredibly clear if you bothered to read the article, that the retailer selling cigarettes to someone under the permitted age will recieve a fine. No one is going to prison for this. It will not be a criminal offence. The buyer won't even face any consequenses, except maybe having their smokes confiscated.