this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2026
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the barrier to entry for ddr can't be so high that someone can't buy a fab machine and undercut them can it?
China seems to be working on it.
It's not just the price. If you get excavators to your new chip factory plot today to start building foundations it'll take several years until you get first chips out of the line after everything is calibrated and ready to go. By then you've thrown few hundred millions on the building, machines and all the physical stuff. Hired and trained workers, managed supply chains and built a system which is pretty expensive to keep running.
So, you're betting quite a lot of money and time against that the market stays like it is for the next 10 years (give or take) to just break even. If the bubble bursts in 5 years you have incomplete factory without potential market and a metric shitload of debt on your company. And that's the same odd you're betting against when trying to raise funding. Venture capital understands this risk too pretty well and that's why everyone and their dogs aren't building chip factories right now.
It can.