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I think it will be triggered by the massive overvaluation of many AI labs. Investors will sell. In the meanwhile, other sectors will still have to adjust to the new reality of token generators, so the wider economy is impacted.
LLMs will not disappear, just like real estate did not disappear after 2008,and the internet did not disappear after the dotcom bubble burst.
But I can imagine the end of hyperfocus on the "AGI race".
I’m assuming one or two significant players will go bust, but probably not the biggest like Google, Microsoft, Amazon. They might take some serious hits, and they’ll deprioritize AI, but still exist. Maybe someone like Oracle or xAI goes under and gets parted out like an airliner getting scrapped. A lot of data center projects will be cancelled, others will shut down, and the local politicians that pushed for those data centers will see their political careers end as their districts are left with big empty buildings and infrastructure debts that will be hard to pay.
Wouldn't such turbulent times be exactly when established companies are at risk as well? E.g., what electrification is doing to VW.
Although the risk for AI-first vs general big tech does depend on the root cause of the disruption.
Well yes, but for example, when someone activated voice interaction with their phone, Google or Apple decide what AI solution is used, and Google already decided to roll their own. When most companies go into AI, just expanding their existing relationship with Microsoft is what their business leaders like. Generally the established companies have preserved the customer engagement even when they resell newcomers.
An example of what you ponder would be like Sears, kmart, Amazon. The thing was that Amazon was greatly valued going direct. People loved the prices and shipping speed. Imagine if instead Amazon decided to partner with Sears and K mart and those companies largely handled the customer engagement with Amazon fulfillment on the backend. Amazon would have been much more exposed to those companies bringing it in house. This latter situation more closely resembles OpenAI and Anthropic right now, at least for the big businesses likely to pay enough after the price hikes.