Programming

Bert Hubert wrote about the same consideration in a blog post.

I think the consideration itself is valid. But Berts position has a big difference: He does not pretend that he can tell the future. It is quite logical and to expect that people ceasing to work as junior developers, or them not finding a job, might lead to a scarcity of senior developers. But we do not really know what happens. I'd describe it more as the whole field in crisis. And the jobs that remain, might not be the jobs that experienced senior developers, of which e.g. in Germany purely by demographics many are close to retirement, really want to do.

Something similar, at a perhaps smaller scale, has happened during and after the Corona pandemic in Europe in the field of hospitality: People in this sector could not get work, or only short hours. So they left the field, since there were other, better paying jobs, with more friendly work times. Hotels and restaurants experienced a worker shortage. One could have expected that then, the businesses had to pay more to attract people. But this did not happen at a significant scale. Was happened was automation and reduction of work, lowering of service standards, and restaurants closing. Was this predictable? I do not know.