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I don’t know much about Cuba. Anyone have a guess on how they would do in an engagement similar to Iran? I don’t recall seeing news about them building missiles or drones, they don’t seem to have allies that could help, and I have no idea if the local population is going to be looking to resist. Even if the population wants to resist, what are the odds they can? Sure guerrilla warfare will be likeliest outcome but would that allow them to hold a majority of the island?
It would be Venezuela 2.0
Putin is playing America like a fiddle.
I guess that is part of my question. Maduro was captured and the Venezuelan people (more or less) didn’t seem to really care. Is the Cuban leadership popular enough for the people to care or would they more indifferent like the Venezuelan response?
Cuba already suffered decades of embargoes and restrictions by the US. Because nothing says beacon of freedom, by destroying a country economically because their belief system and socialism (uhh such a dirty word), doesn't match your view of the world.
The USA always saw Cuba as a stray dog in their back yard. Which is funny when you consider what the settlers did to them when they landed there for the first time, and if by funny you mean something else.
Iran is a natural Fortress. Basically they can dig in and hold out forever. Cuba's a country with very beautiful beaches. There's no way they can resist and even if they could they've been starved for months now and probably don't have the capacity to anymore.
Also distance from the USA and the added supply chain delays/costs, an army doesn't exist long without supplies
Spain invented the modern concentration camp trying to hold the island by force in the late 1800s.
I think the Trump admin would probably try to do the same decapitation without boots-on-ground playbook they’ve done in Iran + Venezuela, but it wouldn’t be pretty if they tried landing troops.
1800s are pretty different from today.
Cuba never had a self sufficient military. Most of their heavy equipment came from the soviets and hasn't been refreshed.
The island is within helicopter range of multiple US airbases. There's a well positioned military base already in place on the island.
Holding a jungle with unwilling people fighting you is never going to be easy, but there's a lot of differences between what Spain was against and what the US would be against.
The biggest issue would be that Cuba could plausibly actually land an attack on the US. It would be basically a coin toss on if that made people furious at Cuba or the administration.
Absolutely agreed, I don’t mean to comment beyond the fact it would be hard to hold ground permanently because 1) economic strife aside, people don’t like getting their national sovereignty trampled on and 2) people can hang out indefinitely in the jungle with guns to attack if you try fullblown occupation.
Cuba should’ve never surrendered the nukes the USSR lent them without a security guarantee and a set of strategic alliances.
The evil empire of the United States is trying to take as many socialist states down with their failing empire as possible. If Trump steals the midterms, he’ll attempt to get Congress to grant him a 3rd term to continue these neo-colonial wars, though his old age means that he will likely die in office.