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It's a pretty cheerful picture if one's primary concern is carbon dioxide emissions.
There are three ways that carbon dioxide emissions come down:
Voluntary limiting of use. I am pretty confident that this isn't going to be a dominant factor, based on how people have acted en masse thus far.
Government rationing or similar restrictions on access to fossil fuel. I don't think that this is terribly politically likely.
Price increases on fossil fuels. This is what's been happening.
Now, I don't know for how long those price increases will persist. But if you want less carbon dioxide emissions, you basically want one of #1, #2, or #3 to happen, and I think that #3 is probably going to be the most-realistically-plausible scenario.
My brother's in-laws last winter were paying almost $2000 a month to heat their (overly large and mostly uninsulated) old house with oil. I can't even imagine how crushing this winter is going to be for them.
Years. We're not getting out of Iran for years. There's no reason to think this forever war is going to be any different than the forever wars of the past, because remember, the Democratic majority's response when they had the opportunity to vote against it was: "Welp, we're in it, so now we have to fund it."
And the billionaire oil barons and war profiteers are making the decision makers generationally wealthy.
I don't think that Trump is going to get an AUMF for it. His own party didn't give him one with a trifecta in place. I saw quotes from multiple clearly-unhappy Republican legislators talking about how it'd be very difficult for Trump to get one, given that he didn't consult with them prior to kicking this off.
I mean, I wouldn't give Trump one either, certainly not with Hegseth as SecDef.
And if the Republicans aren't going to give him one, then I'd say that the chances of the Democrats doing so are considerably less.
Thing is, though, I think that that's more likely to extend it. Like, the American military rolling in in force would end the situation, but if that doesn't happen...shrugs Iran doesn't have much reason to stop. I don't know who else would go in and use force.
I don't think an AUMF really matters anymore.
If the disruption is temporary, it’s bad.
High prices will massively incentivize expanding fossil fuel production, which is exactly what is happening worldwide.
But the oil wells in the Middle East haven’t gone away. That oil will still make it to the atmosphere, sooner or later, and we will end up with an expanded production capacity.
Additionally, war is a terrible emitter.
Your scenarios aren’t wrong, but thing is they are all just temporary symptoms. The oil crises would need to be sustained, indefinitely, to stop those reduced consumption patterns from rebounding.
I'm actually okay with limited plastic production. that shit's useful.
Trump's Green New Deal will force yankees to switch to electric.
Suuuuuuure it will.
Do you think people will just bleed themselves dry for gas that's only going to get more expensive?
How many people still drive full size trucks for no reason?
that'll work until there's no electricity left for the commoners.
You're right, we need that electricity for data centers.
Yankees can ride their bikes or walk.
nope. if an american touches a bicycle it literally explodes. if they see a train they have a seizure, like the vampires from the 'firefall' books but for anti communism.