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For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
- Consider including the article’s mediabiasfactcheck.com/ link
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It's a pretty cheerful picture if one's primary concern is carbon dioxide emissions.
There are three ways that carbon dioxide emissions come down:
Voluntary limiting of use. I am pretty confident that this isn't going to be a dominant factor, based on how people have acted en masse thus far.
Government rationing or similar restrictions on access to fossil fuel. I don't think that this is terribly politically likely.
Price increases on fossil fuels. This is what's been happening.
Now, I don't know for how long those price increases will persist. But if you want less carbon dioxide emissions, you basically want one of #1, #2, or #3 to happen, and I think that #3 is probably going to be the most-realistically-plausible scenario.
If the disruption is temporary, it’s bad.
High prices will massively incentivize expanding fossil fuel production, which is exactly what is happening worldwide.
But the oil wells in the Middle East haven’t gone away. That oil will still make it to the atmosphere, sooner or later, and we will end up with an expanded production capacity.
Additionally, war is a terrible emitter.
Your scenarios aren’t wrong, but thing is they are all just temporary symptoms. The oil crises would need to be sustained, indefinitely, to stop those reduced consumption patterns from rebounding.
I'm actually okay with limited plastic production. that shit's useful.
Also, its so useful for medical purposes