Technology

The risk I see with this is that the strategy rests on the assumption of states acting in rational self-interest. While this is generally a reasonable assumption to make, it has become abundantly clear that it's not always true.

Hypothetically, if China came under control of a megalomaniac willing to compromise Chinese interests and safety (or unwilling to consider that risk) for the sake of nationalist ambitions to "reclaim" Taiwan, things could get ugly. Would the US actually retaliate? Would it fight open war against a nuclear power headed by someone willing to cut their whole country's nose to spite their face?

Conversely, if the US came under control of a foreign asset (or useful idiot) willing to strike a deal with China for cheap access to the chips they need for their American Intelligence, selling out Taiwan in the process and probably getting fucked over in the process, it might allow them to entrench so deeply that even subsequent presidents would have a hard time dislodging them without, again, risking nuclear war.

I don't think either scenario is likely, but I also didn't think the US would let Pedonald run for another term, let alone elect him, so maybe my judgement just sucks.

This is the real answer. Taiwan could have 0 military & China would STILL second guess a forced re-annexation.