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He's not stupid to attack a NATO member. So maybe Moldova? But then why is he testing the skies in the other end of Europe and not near Moldova? Nah, he's not going to attack anyone else.
Might be testing the skies simply for the intelligence, that is also valued by China and Iran whether or not they plan to actually do anything with the information.
He doesn't share a land border with Moldova. The most likely option is Azerbaijan. Not NATO, lots of recent disagreements, starting an alliance with Armenia and Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Armenia are about as far from being allies as two countries can be.
But Trump brokered peace with Albania!
I think they're saying the alliance would be Armenia/Turkey/Russia - Azerbaijan is the target.
Although I don't know what good it would do for Putin to open up another front when they already are stretched thin but obviously Zelensky knows more than me.
No, a couple of weeks ago there was a report about some form of cooperation between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, with a corridor between the three countries, and an intent to make them independent from Moscow and I really thought some mutual protection.
At least, that's what I remembered, but I can't find anything anymore, so maybe I read more into it than it was. Ir maybe it didn't last. I don't know.
Turkey and Azerbaijan refer to their relationship as "two states one nation". They are not going to war either.
Aberbijian?
There was that plane Russia shot down, and a serious breakdown of relationships between Russia and Azerbaijan. I akso thought the peace deal had some serious cooperation between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, but I can't find any details, so it's possible I imagined that.
Bait and switch? "Hey everyone look over here!"
Yep, but not just "look over here." He wants them to move their resources and position their defenses to respond from an attack in those areas. That will potentially leave them out of position to respond quickly to whatever he actually does.