this post was submitted on 27 Aug 2026
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The purpose of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow this week was to warn Russia not to attack NATO member states, according to multiple people familiar with the matter, amid U.S. intelligence assessments that Russia could try to test NATO.

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[–] metermatic26@lemmy.world 68 points 4 days ago (3 children)

The last time a CIA director had direct talks with his Russian counterpart, it was to warn the Russians not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The last time before that, it was to warn the Russians not to invade Ukraine.

Russia is presumably behind the incidents in Leipzig and Rome earlier this month, which constitute direct attacks on NATO military assets and are a severe escalation of the conflict.

In addition Russia has placed ballistic missile launchers in Belarus, has started bombing the border crossing between Moldova and Ukraine, has started engaging in routine airspace violations into NATO territory, all while laying the political groundwork for a massive and forced mobilization.

It seems very reasonable that Ratcliffe’s visit is in response to either the recent attacks or new intelligence pointing to further escalation.

[–] village604@adultswim.fan 12 points 4 days ago (7 children)

Is Russia even capable of a massive mobilization against NATO? They had to use NK soldiers in Ukraine.

[–] Taldan@lemmy.world 7 points 3 days ago

Yes, with the operative word being mobilization

Russia would need to conscript soldiers, which they tried to do a few years ago to disastrous results -- public pushback forced them to walk it back

That's why they want NATO involved, it allows them to say mobilization is needed because NATO is threatening the homeland

It's a balancing act. They want to provoke NATO enough to sell the story of NATO threatening the homeland, but not so much that Russia actually has significant fighting against MATO

Putin feels he needs a military victory, and is taking increasingly large gambles to get it

Watch closely, because the US is following a similar path, just a few years behind

[–] SaharaMaleikuhm@feddit.org 13 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Putin has to keep doubling down or he is done for.

[–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 1 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

Just like Trump.

The good news is that, if one goes, we'll very soon be rid of the other as well.

[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I was speaking online to a Russian acquaintance living in Germany, she said people do not understand that Russia will never give up...ever. She saw that as a badge of pride

[–] metermatic26@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

Here’s the thing: Putin genuinely believes the West is hedonistic and degenerate. His view, which is enforced by the people around him, is that we will avoid war at all costs.

Putin’s logic therefore is that he doesn’t actually have to defeat NATO on the battlefield, but that he simply needs to scare and intimidate us enough for us to break cohesion and back down.

In other words, with every single month that goes by without the EU withdrawing their support, Putin will be tempted to escalate further, hoping with each new provocation that this will will finally be the one that breaks the West’s defiance.

This is laughable offcourse, as many EU countries are directly being threatened by Russia’s aggression and thus have a vested interest not just in defended themselves, but in having Russia choke itself on Ukraine.

In other words, yes Russia’s army can’t stand toe to toe with NATO but Putin’s misguided beliefs and strategic incompetence are nonetheless increasing the chances of this war spilling over into a full scale war between NATO and Russia.

[–] The_Terrible_Humbaba@slrpnk.net 11 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

They were not capable of taking Ukraine in 3 days, but they still tried unfortunately. More important than what they can do, is what they think they can do. And more than that, is what they might want to/see as benefitial to do, whether it might succeed or not. And by "they" in this case, I really just mean Putin.

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 7 points 4 days ago

Had it not been for US, they might have taken Ukraine.

VDV getting annihilated at Hostomel airport is a direct result of US warning Ukraine that the Tank column was effectively a feint and that they needed to hold that airport at all costs.

[–] lolrightythen@lemmy.world 5 points 4 days ago

Like Bibi and Trump, he's cooked as soon as he leaves office. Not that we'll see any direct benefit.

[–] Madison420@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I'm capable of bitch slapping a cop it still doesn't make it a good idea.

[–] village604@adultswim.fan 1 points 3 days ago

The massive part is what I was focusing on.

[–] rockerface@lemmy.cafe 4 points 4 days ago

That didn't and won't stop them from throwing people into the grinder and terrorise the civilians.

[–] nymnympseudonym@piefed.social 2 points 4 days ago

massive mobilization

That's not how Russia fights NATO. It's done with "asymmetric tactics" -- terrorism, basically.

[–] ThePrimitive@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

The last time a CIA director had direct talks with his Russian counterpart, it was to warn the Russians not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The last time before that, it was to warn the Russians not to invade Ukraine.

Irrelevant. Both of those were when we didn't have a Russian puppet in office.

[–] Paradoxeuh@jlai.lu 6 points 4 days ago

Sadly, the CIA director doesn't seem to be super convincing so far...

[–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 11 points 4 days ago

Yeah, sure he did. That's what the kneepads were for.

[–] bedwyr@piefed.ca 11 points 4 days ago (1 children)

What a bitch. As if Russia would, or could, attack Nato. Even without the US Russia would get wrecked and they know it.

The US is just worried the US having to back it's allies will lead to blackmail on our swells coming to light.

[–] dwalin@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago

They want a limited response from europe that they would use as justification for the mobilization against ukraine

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 13 points 4 days ago (2 children)

USA has very close to zero influence on either Ukraine, Russia or Europe.
Why the fuck does he think it matters what someone from the Trump administration says? Especially since they change their minds constantly.
Seems to me that Putin has a way bigger influence on Trump, and the job was to take a message back to trump that needed to be 100% sure not to be intercepted.
It is very clear that USA would not aid Europe or NATO if Putin attacked, the same way USA isn't aiding Ukraine, despite they promised to do so for Ukraine giving up their nukes.
Maybe Putin needed to remind Trump that he still has the P-tapes, P as in pedo.

[–] palordrolap@fedia.io 8 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Why the fuck does he think it matters what someone from the Trump administration says?

The US has main character syndrome. It's hereditary from Britain, who have managed to tone it down a bit in recent years.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 6 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

That is true, but to be fair, UK kind of was the main character until WW2, Then USA became the main character.
But USA has made themselves irrelevant, their military power is now shown to be somewhat a paper tiger, and their global political influence is only a fraction of what it was a few years ago.
But what makes USA more irrelevant than anything, is their absolute inability to stand by any agreement they've made. Trump is even tearing up agreements he made himself. Like the trade deal with Canada. And the agreement they made with Iran before the attack. An agreement that gave USA basically everything they asked for!

So USA is kind of still the main character in some way, but they are not worth negotiating with. USA is probably the most untrustworthy country in the world right now. And also the absolute lack of standing by any ally, makes them irrelevant even to allies.
Only Russia and Israel have real influence on Trump, and both Russia and Israel had strong ties to Epstein.

Which is why I suspect that what the CIA director said is pretty irrelevant, what matters is what Putin said. And we will probably never know what Putin said.

If we see USA as the main character, the way to see it is that the main character is writing himself out of the script with an extremely poor performance nobody likes.

[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

The US rules because of the $, that's it.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 0 points 4 days ago

Well for sure it's most of it. But the dollar is not what it used to be.
As a reserve currency it is declining, And USA had problems bailing out the Japanese Yen, which they wanted to do to prevent Japan from selling US treasury bonds. They did it anyway selling off Euro. Only to have the US treasury bonds decline in value 2 days later anyway, prompting USA to buy up their own bonds, while at the same time issuing new bonds.
It's a complete madhouse, and the US dollar is becoming less dominant in the world, as the US economy is declining, and the federal debt is becoming unsustainable.
The thing that used to make that enormous debt sustainable was that USD was the global reserve currency, but having to much debt, undermines the reserve status, and that in return undermines US finances.

But yes you are right, since WW2, the USD has been a huge part of the American global leadership.

[–] tabarnaski@sh.itjust.works 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

This has nothing to do with influence. The US doesn't want to intervene in Europe, but they are bound by NATO. Trump could decide he doesn't care, but the consequences of not helping a NATO country would be far more damaging to the US, a country the whole world hates right now (apart from Israel maybe).

Ratcliffe knows this and my guess is he's trying to convince Moscow that Trump doesn't call all the shots.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world -1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

they are bound by NATO

I honestly don't think he gives a shit. He will just claim that this wouldn't have happened if NATO allies and Europe had increased defense budgets earlier like he demanded. And that Russia attacking NATO is the fault of the NATO allies, and btw NATO isn't helping USA in Iran.

Ratcliffe knows this and my guess is he’s trying to convince Moscow that Trump doesn’t call all the shots.

This would be nice if true, but I don't believe Trump would ever allow that. Trump is managing the administration as if it was an autocracy.

[–] UnrefinedChihuahua@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 3 days ago (2 children)

NATO isn't helping against Iran because USA is the aggressor.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

Yes but even though we aren't obligated by article 5, almost all NATO countries traditionally help USA in their stupid wars because we ~~are~~ were allies.
But this time, all allies were very quick to declare the war illegal, which makes it illegal for most countries to help USA because they have laws that forbid participation in illegal wars.

[–] minorkeys@sh.itjust.works 9 points 4 days ago (2 children)

But what exactly constitutes an attack? Russia is a master of incremental conflict escalating, never doing anything significant enough to warrant a significant response. I don't even know if NATO has a runbook for dealing with this kind of aggression, I hope so, but I don't see it.

[–] SleeplessCityLights@lemmy.ca 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I am pretty sure both Poland and Romania have adopted the policy of shooting down anything that violates their airspace. That includes drones and manned aircraft.

[–] minorkeys@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 days ago

That's only defensive though and doesn't discourage Russia from doing it.

[–] lka1988@sh.itjust.works 2 points 4 days ago

Death by a thousand papercuts

[–] Kowowow@lemmy.ca 9 points 4 days ago

Now that's what I call top level military intelligence

[–] RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

Nah, he was offering nuclear swapsies for Ukraine and Iran.

[–] reddig33@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

Could you not find a source for this besides cbs news?

[–] 20cello@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago

according to multiple people familiar with the matter

😂

[–] Flower@sh.itjust.works 2 points 4 days ago

"Like, dude, don't attack any EU country. I heard that b* von der Leyden is giving out a billion in subsidies for the first county to reach Moscow and everyone is complaining the Poles have a headstart when the race starts. They're saying next year, they're going to parade you in the red square. So think hard on this! Alright gotta go bye!"

[–] DaddleDew@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

I feel like that during that "secret" meeting Russia tried to convince him to let them attack a NATO country.

[–] CaptainBlinky@lemmy.myserv.one 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Title says he did it, and why he did it. Not really secretive is it?

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 days ago

well it wasn't known before the trip I guess

[–] Almacca@aussie.zone 1 points 4 days ago

I'm sure Moscow is trembling in it's boots after that warning. :|

[–] frustrated_phagocytosis@fedia.io 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Begged, he begged. Probably gifting something he shouldn't in exchange for not attacking and exposing how poorly we could defend against it now that we blew our load all over Gaza and Iran.

[–] decolo@piefed.social 3 points 4 days ago

Remember when Trump kept going on about fort Knox awhile ago?

Didn't Ratcliffe travel in a cargo plane?