This could also be a precursor to Kazakhstan leaving the OPEC+ alliance unofficially led by Saudi Arabia, which has since 2022 agreed on a series of collective production cuts totalling around 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), or nearly 6% of global production. But the agreement has been far from water-tight, as a number of members have failed to comply with their production targets, including Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.
Kazakhstan has arguably been the worst offender recently. Its crude oil production surged in March to 1.85 million bpd from an average of 1.74 million bpd in 2024, after production began at the extension of the country’s giant Tengiz field at the start of the year, far exceeding the country’s output quota of 1.468 million bpd, according to OPEC data.