this post was submitted on 03 May 2025
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A few days ago, we saw Canada's Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre lose an election and his own seat. Can we make that twice in a week?

Current numbers (6.1% counted) have a 5.1% swing to the ALP, resulting in a 6.8% lead for Labor's Ali France over Liberal leader Peter Dutton.

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[–] Sunshine@lemmy.ca 48 points 5 days ago

Anything to make this woman unhappy

[–] olorin99@kbin.earth 29 points 5 days ago (3 children)

Just yesterday I talked to someone from Dickson who was complaining that it felt like a waste of time since Dutton was just going to win. Bet they're pretty happy now.

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 13 points 5 days ago

Ali does what Dutton't.

[–] MisterFrog@aussie.zone 11 points 5 days ago (2 children)

Thank you to our forebears for this at least, giving us preferential voting so that no matter what we think might happen, we can still vote by our heart!!

[–] dgriffith@aussie.zone 9 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Preferential AND mandatory voting, so that all those, "meh it doesn't make any difference" voters are forced to get out there and at least put their opinion on a ballot paper.

And hats off to the AEC who do a very good job of nudging people to get their details sorted, and for putting in place systems that makes it pretty easy to do so, and for generally making sure that elections are pretty well organised.

AND we have snags and cake stalls for good causes at polling places and it's also done on a Saturday, so might as well get out there and do the thing.

[–] MisterFrog@aussie.zone 5 points 4 days ago

100%. I'm also really glad mandatory voting remains popular

[–] TrippaSnippa@aussie.zone 4 points 4 days ago (1 children)

To think that the reason we have preferential voting is because it benefitted the conservative parties of the day...

[–] vividspecter@lemm.ee 2 points 2 days ago

Reminds me of all of the back and forth between optional and full preferential voting at the state level. Usually the change would only happen because the government at the time thought they would benefit from it, only for it to backfire an election cycle or two later.

[–] GreenMartian@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 4 days ago

Mate in Sturt SA (The Grub's old seat) was whinging - what's the point, Libs have never lost the seat and probably never will.

Guess which electorate was the only one in SA to have flipped tonight?

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 30 points 5 days ago (2 children)

ABC ELECTIONS ANALYST ANTONY GREEN HAS JUST CALLED DICKSON FOR ALI FRANCE.

[–] TastyWheat@lemmy.world 13 points 5 days ago (1 children)
[–] aeternum@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 5 days ago

ahem. I believe his REAL name is mr potatohead.

[–] Agent641@lemmy.world 5 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

It's important to dispose of old potatoes from your pantry before they start withering and sprouting those gross roots.

[–] TastyWheat@lemmy.world 17 points 5 days ago

You love to see it.

[–] LumpyPancakes@lemm.ee 12 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Like Canada, I wonder how much the Trump factor played into this.

[–] kudra@sh.itjust.works 18 points 5 days ago (2 children)

I think a metric fucktonne.

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 13 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Definitely. And while the Liberals have tried to claim they've been unfairly tarred with the orange brush, they deliberately tacked that way and it did not work. You had Dutton threatening to get "the woke agenda" out of school curriculums (notably set by the previous LNP government, so the woke agenda of ... Scott Morrison???) and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price literally saying MAGA.

[–] GreenMartian@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 4 days ago

unfairly tarred with the orange brush

Don't forget "hate media", and getting a preference deal with Pauline Hanson...

They really have zero self-awareness.

[–] gedhrel@lemmy.world 8 points 5 days ago

The use of the metric fucksystem is just icing on the cake.

[–] NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.io 12 points 5 days ago
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 10 points 5 days ago

We're basically done at this point, but we can see Dutton very slightly coming back as pre-polls start being counted, but he's so deep in the hole that it's irrelevant.

8:56 PM AEST
29 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 13,233 34.5% 59.0%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 11,759 30.7% 41.0%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 9 points 5 days ago

Dutton has just officially given his double concession speech for both the federal and local campaigns, against Albanese and Ali France. Polls continue to trickle in, nothing surprising to see.

9:37 PM AEST
32 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 14,867 34.3% 58.7%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 13,469 31.1% 41.3%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 9 points 5 days ago

ABC updates are sluggish, so I'm switching to the AEC's own count and projections from here.

8:09 AEST
13 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 8,074 33.2% 57.9%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 7,051 29.0% 42.1%
[–] PetulantBandicoot@aussie.zone 8 points 5 days ago

Big props to Dickson!

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 8 points 5 days ago

7:25 PM AEST
10 of 41 centres reporting primaries, 2 of 41 reporting preferences.

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 2,273 32.7% 53.4%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 2,172 31.3% 46.6%
[–] eureka@aussie.zone 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)
[–] GreenMartian@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 4 days ago

Come, dad. Let's get you back to bed.

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 5 points 4 days ago

Second-last update of the night, unless the last one suddenly takes a lot longer. No significant changes, still close on primary/not close on preferences.

EDIT: Actually, I guess we're done, the tracker updated to show 40 of 40 polling stations reporting without the figures actually budging at all. And we're out of here.

12:04 PM AEST
40 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 28,352 34.2% 56.5%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 28,466 34.3% 43.5%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 5 points 5 days ago

8:33 PM AEST
29 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 12,503 34.4% 59.3%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 10,918 30.0% 40.7%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 5 points 5 days ago

8:20 PM AEST\ 28 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 9,766 33.5% 58.3%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 8,428 28.9% 41.7%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 4 points 4 days ago

We're coming to the end now, with another recovery for Ali France's primary vote putting the candidates back within spitting distance, with Ali of course well ahead in 2PP.

11:37 PM AEST
38 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 27,661 34.1% 56.6%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 27,716 34.2% 43.4%
[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 2 points 4 days ago

And now well get another true horror maybe like Andrew Hastie. A "good ol' god fearing creationist nut job" from WA.

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 4 points 5 days ago

Dutton continues to claw back some of the primary vote, but the 2PP refuses to budge thanks to strong showings from Climate 200 independent Ellie Smith and Vinnie Batten from the Greens. I'll include them both in this update to show why the primary votes are so different from the 2PP.

9:57 PM AEST
33 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 19,254 34.5% 58.7%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 18,235 32.7% 41.3%
Ellie Smith Independent 7,161 12.8% N/A
Vinnie Batten The Greens 4,440 8.0% N/A

From a four-way perspective, Dutton is thoroughly behind the left/centre-left candidates.

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 4 points 5 days ago

9:13 PM AEST
31 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 14,369 34.4% 59.0%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 12,923 31.0% 41.0%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 3 points 4 days ago

Bit of a recovery for Ali France's primary vote in this update as the 2PP softens slightly.

11:22 PM AEST
36 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 21,856 33.4% 56.5%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 22,313 34.1% 43.5%
[–] dumbass@leminal.space 3 points 5 days ago

How do you lose an election that bad, I'd retire instantly if that was me, that's gotta be the worst loss the liberal parties ever had ay?

[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 2 points 4 days ago

11:04 PM AEST
35 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 21,432 33.3% 58.2%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 22,025 34.2% 41.8%
[–] vaguerant@fedia.io 2 points 5 days ago

Don't stress or anything, he's still out, but for the first time in the night, Dutton has managed to drag his way into the lead for primary votes only. The result after preferences remains practically unchanged.

10:34 PM AEST
34 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 20,749 33.3% 58.6%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 21,199 34.0% 41.4%