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Written from India's perspective only. When they call it Jammu and Kashmir...
Here's the deal folks, lots of people in Kashmir consider themselves Kashmiri and not Indian er Pakistani and want independence. What if everyone just said ok, be your own state?
It is very rare for states to give up territory. People like the idea of self-determination until there's people in your country want out.
This ones puzzles me. I don´t think Trump could care much about the region, but Israel certainly likes the current situation in Pakistan so probably will use its resources in Washington to stop it... Israel for sure would not allow the Pakistani beloved Imran Khan to take the lead again.
Now, I am sure US arms industry wants conflict in South Asia to compensate the winding down in Ukraine and the US establishment is excited to drive India more dependent in the US' weaponry for safety and away from China (that has a stake too in Kashmir.)
One possible theory is that Israel thinks it can provide intel to India about Pakistani nuclear weapons and then for its operatives to get rid of Mr Khan before gets the legitimate power back... but I find it too risky, but who knows. I don´t think even the Pakistani nuclear weapons are in working condition with the current Pakistani government that US fully vetted before it took power.
Pakistan is a critical part of BRI, and India is an important member of BRICS. A war between Pakistan and India will impede trade over BRI and sour relations between two biggest BRICS members. Given that the US is in economic war with China, it seems pretty obvious who the biggest beneficiary of all this is.
True. I don´t quite see a war popping up though... Pakistani social media is currently laughing at its own military (understandably so) and wishing it crumbles. India will soon see investment fly if this continues. Israel does not want to risk change of leadership in Pakistan and Trump does not care about the area... there is not enough heat for these sparks to inflame the fuel... The only interested parties and Hindu nationalists and the US establishment for weaponry sales and make India closer to US... but again, Israel has this establishment in a tight leash.
I very much hope this will end with a few border skirmishes. It's clearly not rational to let this escalate, but unfortunately these things can easily take on logic of their own. Each retaliation can lead to a bigger retaliation from the other side, and things can easily spin out of control. Let's hope cooler minds prevail in the end.
Here we go!