sp3ctr4l

I mean, will they eat each other if you can't feed em for a while?

... I realize that is quite a grizzly thing to ask, and I don't mean to be as flippant as the first comment...

But that would be a useful thing to know if you're desperate enough to start a rabbit breeding pen for food, and you also have no idea what feed prices/availability will be.

Close!

I used to compile all the high level analytics and projection reports for all the Vice Presidents and Board Members, but they didn't even notice when I corrected a massive category of double counted revenue within a month of taking over from the person whose position I was taking over.

After a year of being absurdly overworked, doing the job of half of the IT department for them, so that I could actually access the data I needed, being hilariously underpaid, and becoming far, far too well versed in passive aggressive, buzzword heavy, actionable information empty, corpospeak...

I left for greener pastures.

(not Discord lol. did contract db admin type work for MSFT for a bit, then said executive reports for a massive import export firm... then nonprofits, serving the homeless)

... take notes, Americans.

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Yep lol, golden parachute deployed!

... For the pilot.

Passengers are still in the plane, lunch cart just came around!

... Even assuming the self driving tech was actually capable of doing this, which is won't be...

How would this even make any sense?

Ok, if you live within about 200 to 300 miles of a Tesla factory, ... you have this option?

Fremont, California; Sparks, Nevada; Austin, Texas; Buffalo, New York; Lathrop, California.

Outside of 250 miles ish of one of those places? No self driving delivery for you.

... And I am pretty surr not all models are made at all those locations.

Despite long ago claiming his EVs and charger network would be capable of automatically recharging or battery swapping themselves... to make a long distance journey... that ... doesn't exist, he abandoned all of that.

Even funnier: Imagine a tesla self driving from the as of yet to be completed gigafactory in Monterrey Mexico... through the border checkpoint.

The auto charger network doesn't exist, the car would murder people, cause an accident or fucking explode in the border queue... and even if none of that happened... how in the fuck is a self driving car gonna get through a militarized border crossing?

If he just gives himself a waiver via DOGE for his cars... congrats Elon, you are now a drug trafficker / arms smuggler, whether you know it or not.

... fucking lunacy.

A nearly 50% drop in booked global TEUs?

TEU means Twenty Foot Equivalent Units, your basic standard shipping container.

Yes, yes, this is astoundingly, apocalyptically bad.

America will be more fucked than others, but this is Great Depression 2.0.

If this persists, and you end up with a the rest of the year of roughly half the TEU... well you'd go from about 900m TEU to about 550m TEU.

The last time global sea trade clocked in at about 550m TEU was 2010.

https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter5/intermodal-transportation-containerization/world-container-throughput/

So... yeah, just wipe out the last 15 years worth of volume of world trade, and economic activity/growth enabled by that, and oh also you have about 1 billion more mouths to feed than in 2010.

Or... if you look at it in terms of % change.... its hard to find detailed, historical, week by week figures without paying for the data, but the entirety of the GFC hitting the global economy in 2009 resulted in an 8.5% decrease in global TEU from 2008.

So... it remains to be seen how long and strong the current downturn in TEU will persist...

But, if you say 2025 TEU drops by 30% in aggregate for the rest of this year... that is a 2025 that has a -22.5% 'growth' in total world trade volume, almost 3x as bad as the 07 08 09 GFC, the impact of which was seen in the -8.5% of 2009.

These are spitball guess numbers, I can't predict the future... but I do have a degree in Econ and I used to work as an executive level data analyst for a large mulinational, US based import export firm... so its moderately informed spitball guess.

This is Great Depression 2.0, this will make the GFC look like childs play. This is tens or hundreds of millions of people (globally) going broke, becoming homeless, starving to death levels of bad.

The only way to prevent that at this point is ... well basically step one is America needs to impeach and imprison every Trump administration member... but that is uh... not guaranteed, to say the least.

Oh I agree, I just cant help but to be stunned and bewildered.

What is this goddamned clownworld timeline we live in where David fucking Brooks is calling for a mass revolt, a literal insurrection, against the pinnacle, ultimate form of what he and his ilk have advocated for and done their level best to make a reality for longer than I've been alive?

I mean... at this point, fuck it, this is good news, we are gonna need as many bodies in the streets and feet on the ground, from as many backgrounds and persuasions of all kinds to have any chance at all of stopping this madness...

But Jesus Christ if this isn't the most 'Dog finally catches car and is disappointed' fucking thing.

As someone with an actual Econ degree:

... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.

Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?

No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.

...

Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....

...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.

Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.

Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.

... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.

...

Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.

Except for right now, the last few years.

We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.

But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...

And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.

(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)

So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.

...

Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.

Whelp, thats a whoosh moment for me than lol.

But it does seem like some other people appreciated the info :P

To clarify:

Though the group currently calling itself Anonymous that just published all this ... derives the aesthetics and what not from stuff that arose on 4chan in the mid/late 00s...

They almost certainly have nothing to do with 4chan going down.

4chan was taken down by a group of people that used to post on a 4chan subboard, which was removed... and then they started their own community 'Soyjack Party'.

Which, ironically, is a very similar story as to why 4chan even exists: m00t used to post hentai and loli on SomethingAwful, and then that subboard got shut down, m00t and other frequent posters there got banned, and then they made 4chan.

Like... I stopped using 4chan almost two decades ago now, when m00t made a big announcement post, which later disappeared, stating that as a result of increased media scrutiny and a number of high profile crimes that were connected back to 4chan posts... well m00t said that he was cooperating with the authorities.

I can't prove this, because ... two decades ago, and the announcement was only up for ... less than 24hrs... but yeah, as the SoyJack Party hack of 4chan has confirmed, it was obvious that 4chan was/is a shitshow joke of an operation held together by ducttape and fishing lines.

For fucks sake, their versions of PHP and MySQL were like 12 years out of date and had numerous, extensively well documented security flaws.