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I think you should take a more constructivist approach - what we have now, rather than what we might have in the future. Currently we have a network of like 20 major servers, mostly federated with each other. If one of those servers becomes insanely popular and overrun with bots and garbage, the rest will simply defederate from it. From the perspective of users on those other servers, they've only lost 5% of the network they liked. From the perspective of users who were on the popular server before it went to shit, they now have to move servers but still have 95% of the old network as they remember it.
What incentive is there for them to move? By the very nature of hype explosions, they are exponential, and as such most users will have joined when it was already quite popular. They won't remember the "good old days" of their server being federated, so for them it's fine to be isolated on a garbage server, at least initially. I suspect if something like this were to happen, most other servers will also limit signups for some time, to keep the spirit of the network alive and growing organically.