Russia chose to invade a nation that had recently discovered large reserves of natural gas - more than enough to supply Europe's needs while they transitioned to alternatives - and that sat astride the pipeline that Russia uses to provide their gas to Europe. Even though Russia has not proved capable of conquering all of Ukraine, their occupation of the Donbas region has prevented Ukraine from becoming a viable natural gas competitor in the European market and kept their primary source of revenue alive, at least in the short term.

[–] itsprobablyfine@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago

If we actually manage to pull it off it's a pretty decent disincentive. Invade neighbor for resources? No one will buy those resources from you.

Obviously not sufficient on its own, but seems like a good place to start.