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The fabs are booked solid for the next 3yrs. It would require the customers to cancel their orders and that would only happen if they believe they can afford to let their competitors get ahead. This will keep moving forward unless China goes into Taiwan or global markets crash.
Bankruptcies tend to mean the orders are cancelled.
And the capacity is picked up by the remaining ones that wanted more. Even with all the leveraged capital there is still an obscene amount of cash in most of the big companies building out. You’re thinking it just companies and not shells for nation-states that see this as strategic investment.
Not if there's a crash, these businesses are not making any money, they can't afford shit without loans and venture capital.
When that dries out, as it's already beginning to do, 80% of all those orders for the next 3 years will be cancelled, and the remaining 20% will be what was ordered from China through 3rd party companies to circumvent sanctions.
I don't think you are considering that these companies are burning something in the area of $100 BILLION per month!
If there’s a legitimate crash everyone will have bigger problems than buying stuff for their gaming rigs.
OpenAI, Anthropic and the rest of the LLM crew are the highest profile users, but CSPs are close behind and cash heavy. And there’s an immense amount of ML/DL work being done that doesn’t get the publicity that is queued for HW too.
How bad it will be remains to be seen, it could be a process that takes a couple of years. Like the dot com crash.
A bank selling off AI loans at 17% yields is a pretty clear indicator that some financial institutions don't trust this industry anymore. And they aren't even that eager to buy up on the cheap!
That probably means they only got about $90 back for every $100 dollar they had loaned to the AI companies. Eating a 10% loss now is better than losing everything later.