I forsee the bubble deflating rather than a pop
this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2026
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Please. Then maybe those assholes at Nvidia and AMD will come back to us.
Why are they assholes? Am I out of the loop? I thought the assholes in this story were the LLM companies themselves?
Nvidia is deep deep into the circular-financing scam - one recent example is they promised to provide two thirds of the money another company wants to pay for Nvidia chips. This demonstrates the prices are far far away from what real fair market prices should be, and that winners and losers are chosen in advance by negotiations between a few CEOs, not actual company performance. They're unashamedly drawing attention to the fact it's a bubble, and they're still inflating it.
They'll never want to go back to what we gave them you'll be making up the difference
We need a third option.
Intel was supposed to be that
Then we need a fourth option.
At this point, I'm committed to never giving AMD or NVIDIA another penny if I can possibly avoid it. And if Intel won't be the alternative then I'll wait to buy another computer or part until there's a viable fourth provider who actually wants my money, rather than to get in on the insane data center hype.
I think your best shot is some new chinese company then. I know they are getting there with RAM but not sure on GPUs since its a whole different beast.
I heard about bolt graphics during last CES, they seem to be fairly far along ATM, but we probably won't see anything from them until 5-10 years at the earliest
The fabs are booked solid for the next 3yrs. It would require the customers to cancel their orders and that would only happen if they believe they can afford to let their competitors get ahead. This will keep moving forward unless China goes into Taiwan or global markets crash.
Bankruptcies tend to mean the orders are cancelled.
And the capacity is picked up by the remaining ones that wanted more. Even with all the leveraged capital there is still an obscene amount of cash in most of the big companies building out. You’re thinking it just companies and not shells for nation-states that see this as strategic investment.
And the capacity is picked up by the remaining ones that wanted more.
Not if there's a crash, these businesses are not making any money, they can't afford shit without loans and venture capital.
When that dries out, as it's already beginning to do, 80% of all those orders for the next 3 years will be cancelled, and the remaining 20% will be what was ordered from China through 3rd party companies to circumvent sanctions.
I don't think you are considering that these companies are burning something in the area of $100 BILLION per month!
If there’s a legitimate crash everyone will have bigger problems than buying stuff for their gaming rigs.
OpenAI, Anthropic and the rest of the LLM crew are the highest profile users, but CSPs are close behind and cash heavy. And there’s an immense amount of ML/DL work being done that doesn’t get the publicity that is queued for HW too.
If there’s a legitimate crash everyone will have bigger problems than buying stuff for their gaming rigs.
How bad it will be remains to be seen, it could be a process that takes a couple of years. Like the dot com crash.
A bank selling off AI loans at 17% yields is a pretty clear indicator that some financial institutions don't trust this industry anymore. And they aren't even that eager to buy up on the cheap!
That probably means they only got about $90 back for every $100 dollar they had loaned to the AI companies. Eating a 10% loss now is better than losing everything later.
If not this quarter, then next fed reserve announcement
🤞
A bubble bursts, there is no bursting involved.
I'm afraid I don't understand, is bursting not just the transition between not-burst and burst?
What they want to say is that often there is no transition, as in a flash crash.
I think you're right, but that just highlights where the metaphor isn't perfect, because financial market bubbles do in fact transition from not-burst to burst, sometimes slowly over the course of months. Often it's not clear when the bursting began until we're pretty deep into it, and it's rarely clear when it's over until quite a while after it's ended.
Ah, like a once-in-a-century financial event... Say, when's the last time we had one of those?
I seem to recall a very large financial bubble associated with a period of time called the "twenties." Something about "roaring."
On another topic entirely, remind me which decade we're in now, please?
It must be 1926. We have a prosperous decade leading up to a market inflated by stock market speculation, stock prices that are unlikely to match anticipated future earnings, the fed increasing interest rates to curb spending which is impacting construction investment, the overproduction of certain commodities, reduction in foreign trade and lending, and retaliatory tariffs and protectionist policies going into effect.
Oh wait, it's 100 years later and it just rhymes with the lead up to the Great Depression? Cool.
You left out the retail investors thinking margin is a great way to amplify gains with no real risk...