Technology

My CEO (whom I don't consider a particularly good or bad CEO) spent a day playing with AI then when asked if he'd sign the company up with the service he literally laughed in their faces and said it's useless. I was honestly shocked because he's totally into buzzword and popular crap. Gained a lot of respect for him that day.

The problem is that the hardware has a 5 or 6 year depreciation schedule on paper, but NVIDIA keeps saying that their next generation chip will be twice as good as their last chip so there is a FOMO schedule of like every two years.

I'm curious as well. My knowledge is probably quite outdated, but from what I understood the training part is what's expensive and then querying the model is pretty cheap. Is it still true (or was it ever) that the generated answers on search engines are cheaper to generate than the actual search results?

that's the $84,000 question. They're filling datacenters with the fastest possible equipment and need it to be 10x faster, That hardware is dinosaur fodder a year after they install it.

Oh, you are going to pay. The bubble is going to fuck us all quite thoroughly.

I guess you missed this story from last week: Google To Pay SpaceX $920 Million Per Month For Massive AI Compute Power

I guess google's announcement of renting xai compute could have been simply for show to boost SpaceX ipo.

Plus they have a hook with the common folk, the phone steers you toward Gemini (Android phones, obviously, and Apple currently partners with Google for Gemini for iPhone...).

For Claude and OpenAI, you have to explicitly want to go out of your way to use them, or use them indirectly through another service that has a hook.

Claude seems to have some software developers explicitly preferring them, though a alot of the corporate money is on Microsoft and Microsoft leveraged Visual Studio and Github to become the business-friendly frontend, and sure, you can use Anthropic models too... Though Microsoft ultimately has control of what is reasonably available and how much each one costs. Anthropic has a shot but I could see Microsoft pivot to really mess with Anthropic. The one gap in Microsoft strategy is the "native AI" workflow where Claude Code has won hearts and minds, but it uses massively more tokens for frankly marginal or sometimes negative value compared to a more curated use in-editor.

OpenAI I see as the most exposed. Lot's of data showing they are suffering from people being over the fad of going out of their way to use ChatGPT, especially since their phones have started embracing 'default' Chatbot. Software developers that are inclined to use LLM are also inclined to be pretty dismissive of anything other than either Anthropic or open weight models, depending on their inclination. Also Altman seemed the most agressive in committing to spending money they didn't have, though all of them exhibit this to some extent.

I predict Microsoft ultimately pivots to in-house models and convinces the businesses to go that way. Apple may continue with Gemini or roll their own eventually. Anthropic currently has the stronger position between OpenAI and them, but I think you are right that both have risk of just being left behind.

I really really really don't want evil corporation Google to dominate even more.

I prefer plailny greedy corporations over evil ones

pretty soon

people have been saying that for some time though